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Conference League
Referee: E Jorgji
Lugano
U S T T S
2–0
Full-time
Gent
S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lugano Gent
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,2
3,0
Scored
1,8
2,7
Conceded
1,3
0,3
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+2,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 3/9 matches
Win Ø 73%
67%
78%
Points per game
2,0
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 45%
33%
56%
Average goals
3,0
3,2
Scored
1,7
2,1
Conceded
1,3
1,1
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,19 xG 1,78
39% Possession 61%
10 Shots 17
3 Shots on target 6
3 Blocked shots 6
6 Goalkeeper saves 1
3 Corners 10
16 Free kicks against 14
4 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Lugano Gent
1–0 H. Mahou ⚽
S. Vladi
6′
31′
🟨 Andri Guðjohnsen
Half-time 1–0
49′
🟨 Jordan Torunarigha
Milton Valenzuela 🟨
59′
K. Przybyłko 🔁
↦ S. Vladi
63′
66′
🔁 O. Gandelman
↦ S. Kums
66′
🔁 Hélio Varela
↦ F. Surdez
Amir Saipi 🟨
69′
Hicham Mahou 🟨
71′
O. Doumbia 🔁
↦ H. Mahmoud
71′
Y. Cimignani 🔁
↦ H. Mahou
71′
Uran Bislimi 🟨
73′
76′
🟨 Tsuyoshi Watanabe
77′
🔁 M. Dean
↦ M. Sonko
80′
🟨 Max Dean
2–0 O. Doumbia ⚽
U. Bislimi
86′
87′
🔁 A. Brown
↦ M. Samoise
L. Mai 🔁
↦ R. Steffen
90′
Daniel Dos Santos 🔁
↦ U. Bislimi
90′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Lugano

4-2-3-1
1 A. Saipi G
46 M. Zanotti D
6 A. Papadopoulos D
22 A. El Wafi D
23 M. Valenzuela D
8 A. Grgic M
29 H. Mahmoud M
11 R. Steffen M
25 U. Bislimi M
18 H. Mahou M
9 S. Vladi F
Bench (10)
93 K. Przybyłko
20 O. Doumbia
21 Y. Cimignani
17 L. Mai
27 Daniel Dos Santos
2 Z. Brault-Guillard
26 Martim Marques
99 D. Mina
28 Y. Ryter
58 S. Osigwe

Coach: M. Croci-Torti

Gent

4-3-3
1 D. Schmidt G
18 M. Samoise D
4 T. Watanabe D
23 J. Torunarigha D
20 Tiago Araújo D
16 M. Delorge M
15 A. Ito M
24 S. Kums M
19 F. Surdez F
9 A. Guðjohnsen F
11 M. Sonko F
Bench (11)
6 O. Gandelman
29 Hélio Varela
21 M. Dean
3 A. Brown
27 T. De Vlieger
8 P. Gerkens
12 H. Gambor
33 D. Roef
40 R. Vanden Borre
35 G. De Meyer
13 S. Mitrović

Coach: W. Vrancken

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

E Jorgji · 20 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.