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Serie A
Referee: Michael Fabbri
Cagliari
T U T
3–0
Full-time
Atalanta
U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cagliari Atalanta
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/6 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,3
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
3,7
3,5
Scored
1,3
1,7
Conceded
2,3
1,8
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,2
This season — Serie A · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 100%
100%
100%
Average goals
3,7
4,3
Scored
1,3
2,0
Conceded
2,3
2,3
Goal diff per game
-1,0
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

41% Possession 59%
13 Shots 7
9 Shots on target 2
2 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 6
2 Corners 4
4 Offside 0
10 Free kicks against 19
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Cagliari 18. · Atalanta 15. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Napoli 4 3 1 0 +7 10
2 Juventus 3 3 0 0 +4 9
3 Roma 3 2 1 0 +5 7
4 Lazio 4 2 1 1 +3 7
5 Chievo 4 2 1 1 +2 7
6 Genoa 2 2 0 0 +4 6
7 Sampdoria 4 2 0 2 +0 6
8 Milan 4 2 0 2 -1 6
9 Udinese 4 2 0 2 -2 6
10 Bologna 4 2 0 2 -4 6
11 Pescara 4 1 1 2 -1 4
12 Inter 3 1 1 1 -1 4
13 Torino 3 1 0 2 +2 3
14 Fiorentina 2 1 0 1 +0 3
15 Atalanta 3 1 0 2 -1 3
16 Empoli 3 1 0 2 -2 3
17 Sassuolo 3 1 0 2 -4 3
18 Cagliari 3 0 1 2 -3 1
19 Palermo 3 0 1 2 -4 1
20 Crotone 3 0 0 3 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Cagliari Atalanta
1–0 M. Borriello ⚽
João Pedro
8′
Fabio Pisacane 🟨
35′
44′
🟨 Rafael Tolói
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 M. D'Alessandro
↦ A. Masiello
48′
🟨 Carlos Carmona
2–0 M. Sau ⚽
M. Isla
55′
56′
🔁 R. Gagliardini
↦ J. Kurtič
59′
🔁 A. Grassi
↦ C. Carmona
N. Barella 🔁
↦ João Pedro
63′
3–0 M. Borriello ⚽
73′
L. Bittante 🔁
↦ F. Pisacane
79′
G. Munari 🔁
↦ M. Isla
83′
Gianni Munari 🟨
88′
Full-time 3–0

Line-ups

Cagliari

4-3-1-2
1 Rafael G
2 Bruno Alves D
23 L. Ceppitelli D
19 F. Pisacane D
29 N. Murru D
20 S. Padoin M
3 M. Isla D
77 P. Tachtsidis M
10 João Pedro M
22 M. Borriello F
25 M. Sau F
Bench (10)
18 N. Barella
26 L. Bittante
16 G. Munari
35 B. Salamon
36 L. Crosta
9 F. Melchiorri
32 N. Giannetti
8 D. Di Gennaro
13 R. Colombo
24 M. Capuano

Coach: M. Rastelli

Atalanta

3-5-2
1 E. Berisha G
5 A. Masiello D
25 A. Konko D
6 E. Zukanović D
3 Rafael Tolói D
24 A. Conti M
10 A. Gómez F
17 C. Carmona M
27 J. Kurtič M
19 F. Kessié M
43 A. Paloschi F
Bench (12)
7 M. D'Alessandro
4 R. Gagliardini
88 A. Grassi
2 G. Stendardo
57 M. Sportiello
29 A. Petagna
8 G. Migliaccio
77 C. Raimondi
11 R. Freuler
37 L. Spinazzola
51 M. Pinilla
13 M. Caldara

Coach: G. Gasperini

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Michael Fabbri · 75 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.