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Serie A
Referee: Nicola Rizzoli
Milan
S S U S S
1–0
Full-time
Juventus
T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Juventus
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,2
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,5
3,0
Scored
1,7
2,3
Conceded
0,8
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,7
This season — Serie A · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 76%
63%
88%
Points per game
2,0
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
50%
75%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,3
2,8
Scored
1,9
2,1
Conceded
1,4
0,6
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

41% Possession 59%
8 Shots 22
2 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 1
5 Corners 9
2 Offside 6
19 Free kicks against 14
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Milan 3. · Juventus 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Juventus 8 7 0 1 +12 21
2 Roma 8 5 1 2 +9 16
3 Milan 8 5 1 2 +4 16
4 Torino 8 4 2 2 +8 14
5 Napoli 8 4 2 2 +6 14
6 Lazio 8 4 2 2 +6 14
7 Chievo 8 4 1 3 +1 13
8 Cagliari 8 4 1 3 -1 13
9 Genoa 8 3 3 2 +2 12
10 Sassuolo 8 4 0 4 -2 12
11 Inter 8 3 2 3 +0 11
12 Sampdoria 9 3 2 4 -2 11
13 Bologna 8 3 2 3 -3 11
14 Atalanta 8 3 1 4 -2 10
15 Fiorentina 7 2 3 2 +0 9
16 Pescara 8 1 4 3 -3 7
17 Udinese 8 2 1 5 -7 7
18 Palermo 8 1 3 4 -7 6
19 Empoli 8 1 2 5 -9 5
20 Crotone 8 0 1 7 -12 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Milan Juventus
30′
🟨 Leonardo Bonucci
33′
🔁 J. Cuadrado
↦ P. Dybala
38′
🟨 Miralem Pjanić
Juraj Kucka 🟨
44′
Half-time 0–0
Gianluigi Donnarumma 🟨
50′
1–0 M. Locatelli
Suso
65′
A. Poli 🔁
↦ M. Niang
69′
75′
🔁 M. Mandžukić
↦ M. Benatia
76′
🟨 Dani Alves
Manuel Locatelli 🟨
79′
G. Gómez 🔁
↦ M. Locatelli
81′
Andrea Poli 🟨
83′
87′
🔁 S. Sturaro
↦ Hernanes
G. Lapadula 🔁
↦ C. Bacca
93′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Milan

4-3-3
99 G. Donnarumma G
29 G. Paletta D
20 I. Abate D
2 M. De Sciglio D
13 A. Romagnoli D
5 G. Bonaventura M
33 J. Kucka M
73 M. Locatelli M
70 C. Bacca F
11 M. Niang F
8 Suso F
Bench (10)
16 A. Poli
15 G. Gómez
9 G. Lapadula
1 Gabriel
4 R. Ely
7 Luiz Adriano
10 K. Honda
23 J. Sosa
35 A. Plizzari
80 M. Pašalić

Coach: V. Montella

Juventus

3-5-2
1 G. Buffon
15 A. Barzagli D
23 Dani Alves D
19 L. Bonucci D
4 M. Benatia D
12 Alex Sandro D
6 S. Khedira M
11 Hernanes M
5 M. Pjanić M
9 G. Higuaín F
21 P. Dybala F
Bench (11)
7 J. Cuadrado
17 M. Mandžukić
27 S. Sturaro
8 C. Marchisio
18 M. Lemina
24 D. Rugani
25 Neto
26 S. Lichtsteiner
32 E. Audero
33 P. Evra
34 M. Kean

Coach: M. Allegri

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Nicola Rizzoli · 34 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,7 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
14,1 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,38 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.