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Championship

Referee: Tony Harrington

Millwall

T U T U

4–0

Full-time

Norwich

S U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Norwich

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

25%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

4,0

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,3

This season — Championship · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

0,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

25%

50%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

28% Possession 72%

11 Shots 15

5 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 3

7 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 6

2 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 22. · Norwich 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	Ipswich	4	4	0	0	+5	12
3	Wolves	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Nott'm Forest	4	3	0	1	+2	9
5	Leeds	4	2	2	0	+3	8
6	Hull	5	2	1	2	+5	7
7	QPR	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Preston	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Derby	4	2	1	1	+0	7
10	Bristol City	5	1	3	1	+1	6
11	Middlesbrough	4	2	0	2	+1	6
12	Sheffield United	4	2	0	2	-1	6
13	Sunderland	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Sheffield Weds	4	1	2	1	+0	5
15	Aston Villa	5	1	2	2	-2	5
16	Birmingham	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Norwich	4	1	1	2	-2	4
18	Reading	4	1	1	2	-2	4
19	Fulham	4	0	3	1	-1	3
20	Barnsley	4	1	0	3	-3	3
21	Burton Albion	4	1	0	3	-5	3
22	Millwall	4	0	2	2	-2	2
23	Bolton	5	0	2	3	-6	2
24	Brentford	4	0	1	3	-4	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hull	3	2	0	1	+6	6
2	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	QPR	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Middlesbrough	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Nott'm Forest	2	2	0	0	+2	6
7	Sheffield United	2	2	0	0	+2	6
8	Preston	2	2	0	0	+2	6
9	Bristol City	3	1	2	0	+2	5
10	Aston Villa	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	Reading	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Barnsley	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Wolves	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Burton Albion	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Derby	2	1	0	1	-1	3
18	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
19	Leeds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
20	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Millwall	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	Fulham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-2	1
24	Bolton	2	0	0	2	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Wolves	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Ipswich	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Cardiff	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Sunderland	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Derby	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Nott'm Forest	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Fulham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
10	Bolton	3	0	2	1	-4	2
11	Bristol City	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Hull	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Preston	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Millwall	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Norwich	2	0	1	1	-2	1
16	QPR	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Aston Villa	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Middlesbrough	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Birmingham	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Barnsley	2	0	0	2	-3	0
21	Brentford	2	0	0	2	-3	0
22	Sheffield United	2	0	0	2	-3	0
23	Reading	2	0	0	2	-3	0
24	Burton Albion	2	0	0	2	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.