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Eredivisie
Referee: Martin Van den Kerkhof
Heracles
S S T S U
2–2
Full-time
Excelsior
S S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heracles Excelsior
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
3,2
2,3
Scored
1,8
1,3
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,3
This season — Eredivisie · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
2,0
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
100%
50%
Average goals
2,5
2,0
Scored
1,5
1,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

52% Possession 48%
17 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 4
2 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 17
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Heracles 9. · Excelsior 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Zwolle 3 2 1 0 +4 7
2 Utrecht 2 2 0 0 +5 6
3 Vitesse 3 2 0 1 +4 6
4 PSV Eindhoven 2 2 0 0 +4 6
5 VVV Venlo 2 2 0 0 +4 6
6 AZ Alkmaar 3 2 0 1 +2 6
7 Feyenoord 2 2 0 0 +2 6
8 Heerenveen 3 1 2 0 +1 5
9 Heracles 2 1 1 0 +1 4
10 Ajax 2 1 0 1 +1 3
11 Excelsior 2 1 0 1 +0 3
12 Sparta Rotterdam 3 0 2 1 -3 2
13 Groningen 2 0 1 1 -2 1
14 NAC Breda 3 0 1 2 -6 1
15 Willem II 2 0 0 2 -3 0
16 Roda 2 0 0 2 -4 0
17 Twente 3 0 0 3 -4 0
18 Den Haag 3 0 0 3 -6 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Heracles Excelsior
Robin Propper 🟨
10′
1–0 B. Kuwas
J. Pelupessy
15′
16′
L. Bruins 1–1
A. Messaoud
24′
🔁 J. Caenepeel
↦ S. Elbers
43′
🟨 Luigi Bruins
Half-time 1–1
K. Peterson 🔁
↦ R. Niemeijer
46′
Jamiro 🔁
↦ B. Kuwas
46′
2–1 P. Gladon
B. van Hintum
52′
63′
J. Caenepeel 2–2
L. Duarte 🔁
↦ P. van Ooijen
77′
77′
🔁 K. Vermeulen
↦ A. Messaoud
88′
🔁 A. Hadouir
↦ L. Bruins
90′
🟨 Ryan Koolwijk
90′
🟥 Anouar Hadouir
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Heracles

4-3-3
1 B. Castro G
2 T. Breukers D
5 B. van Hintum D
4 R. Pröpper D
34 J. Hardeveld D
14 J. Pelupessy M
20 P. van Ooijen M
29 R. Niemeijer M
9 P. Gladon F
7 B. Darri F
17 B. Kuwas F
Bench (10)
18 K. Peterson
35 Jamiro
8 L. Duarte
27 N. Leemhuis
3 D. Wuytens
12 W. Droste
26 H. Zeinstra
15 J. Navrátil
19 V. Vermeij
28 M. Brouwer

Coach: J. Stegeman

Excelsior

4-3-3
1 A. Damen G
15 J. Mattheij D
5 M. Massop D
4 W. Faes D
10 L. Bruins F
8 R. Koolwijk M
22 Jeffry Fortes D
14 A. Messaoud M
6 H. Faik M
11 S. Elbers F
19 Z. El Azzouzi F
Bench (9)
23 J. Caenepeel
18 K. Vermeulen
7 A. Hadouir
3 S. O'Neill
16 M. Havekotte
21 D. Haspolat
13 T. te Duits
17 D. Payne
2 K. Karami

Coach: M. van der Gaag

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Martin Van den Kerkhof · 67 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
17,8 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.