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Championship

Referee: Tim Robinson

Millwall

T U S T U

1–0

Full-time

Leeds

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

3,0

1,8

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

1,3

0,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,8

This season — Championship · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 43%

14%

71%

Points per game

0,9

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

43%

29%

Both score Ø 29%

43%

14%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,4

2,0

Conceded

1,3

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

45% Possession 55%

20 Shots 1

6 Shots on target 0

7 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

14 Corners 2

3 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 18. · Leeds 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	7	5	2	0	+12	17
2	Cardiff	7	5	1	1	+5	16
3	Sheffield United	7	5	0	2	+3	15
4	Wolves	7	4	2	1	+4	14
5	Preston	7	3	3	1	+4	12
6	Sheffield Weds	7	3	3	1	+3	12
7	Ipswich	6	4	0	2	+2	12
8	Nott'm Forest	7	4	0	3	-1	12
9	QPR	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	Middlesbrough	6	3	1	2	+4	10
11	Derby	6	3	1	2	+3	10
12	Bristol City	7	2	4	1	+2	10
13	Fulham	7	2	4	1	+2	10
14	Norwich	7	2	2	3	-5	8
15	Barnsley	6	2	1	3	+0	7
16	Hull	7	2	1	4	-1	7
17	Reading	6	2	1	3	-1	7
18	Millwall	7	1	3	3	+1	6
19	Aston Villa	6	1	3	2	-2	6
20	Sunderland	7	1	2	4	-5	5
21	Burton Albion	7	1	2	4	-10	5
22	Birmingham	7	1	1	5	-6	4
23	Brentford	7	0	3	4	-5	3
24	Bolton	7	0	2	5	-10	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	QPR	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Cardiff	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Sheffield United	3	3	0	0	+4	9
5	Leeds	4	2	2	0	+7	8
6	Sheffield Weds	4	2	2	0	+3	8
7	Middlesbrough	3	2	1	0	+3	7
8	Wolves	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Norwich	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Hull	3	2	0	1	+6	6
11	Derby	3	2	0	1	+4	6
12	Barnsley	3	2	0	1	+3	6
13	Ipswich	3	2	0	1	+1	6
14	Nott'm Forest	3	2	0	1	+0	6
15	Aston Villa	3	1	2	0	+2	5
16	Bristol City	3	1	2	0	+2	5
17	Fulham	4	1	2	1	+0	5
18	Millwall	3	1	1	1	+3	4
19	Reading	3	1	1	1	+0	4
20	Burton Albion	3	1	1	1	+0	4
21	Birmingham	3	1	1	1	-1	4
22	Brentford	3	0	2	1	-1	2
23	Sunderland	4	0	1	3	-4	1
24	Bolton	4	0	0	4	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	3	3	0	0	+5	9
2	Wolves	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Cardiff	4	2	1	1	-1	7
4	Ipswich	3	2	0	1	+1	6
5	Nott'm Forest	4	2	0	2	-1	6
6	Sheffield United	4	2	0	2	-1	6
7	Fulham	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Bristol City	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Sheffield Weds	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Sunderland	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Derby	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Middlesbrough	3	1	0	2	+1	3
13	Reading	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Preston	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Millwall	4	0	2	2	-2	2
16	Bolton	3	0	2	1	-4	2
17	QPR	3	0	1	2	-3	1
18	Barnsley	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	Aston Villa	3	0	1	2	-4	1
20	Brentford	4	0	1	3	-4	1
21	Norwich	3	0	1	2	-6	1
22	Hull	4	0	1	3	-7	1
23	Burton Albion	4	0	1	3	-10	1
24	Birmingham	4	0	0	4	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.