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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Xistra

Maritimo

S T S S S

2–1

Full-time

Aves

T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Maritimo Aves

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/5 matches

Win Ø 44%

67%

20%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 29%

17%

40%

Both score Ø 29%

17%

40%

Average goals

1,2

2,4

Scored

0,8

Conceded

0,3

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 50%

80%

20%

Points per game

2,4

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

20%

40%

Both score Ø 30%

20%

40%

Average goals

1,4

2,4

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

0,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

49% Possession 51%

7 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 8

0 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 7

0 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Maritimo 4. · Aves 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	5	5	0	0	+12	15
2	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+10	15
3	Benfica	5	4	1	0	+9	13
4	Maritimo	5	4	0	1	+3	12
5	Rio Ave	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Feirense	5	2	2	1	+2	8
7	Guimaraes	5	2	1	2	-6	7
8	Vitoria Setubal	6	1	3	2	+0	6
9	Pacos Ferreira	6	1	3	2	-1	6
10	Sp Braga	5	2	0	3	-2	6
11	Estoril	5	2	0	3	-3	6
12	Tondela	5	1	2	2	+1	5
13	Moreirense	5	1	2	2	-4	5
14	Aves	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	Belenenses	5	1	1	3	-6	4
16	Boavista	5	1	0	4	-3	3
17	Portimonense	5	1	0	4	-4	3
18	Chaves	5	0	1	4	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	3	3	0	0	+10	9
2	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+8	9
3	Maritimo	3	3	0	0	+3	9
4	Rio Ave	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	-3	6
7	Vitoria Setubal	3	1	2	0	+2	5
8	Pacos Ferreira	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Belenenses	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Feirense	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Estoril	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Portimonense	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Boavista	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Aves	3	1	0	2	-3	3
16	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-3	1
18	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Tondela	2	1	1	0	+3	4
4	Feirense	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Benfica	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Moreirense	3	1	1	1	-1	4
7	Maritimo	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Sp Braga	3	1	0	2	-2	3
10	Estoril	3	1	0	2	-4	3
11	Aves	2	0	1	1	-1	1
12	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	1	2	-2	1
13	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	1	2	-2	1
14	Guimaraes	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Chaves	3	0	1	2	-4	1
16	Boavista	3	0	0	3	-3	0
17	Portimonense	3	0	0	3	-4	0
18	Belenenses	3	0	0	3	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.