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Premier League

Referee: Stuart Attwell

Newcastle

S T T S S

2–1

Full-time

Stoke

S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

50%

25%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

25%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,0

Scored

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

42% Possession 58%

14 Shots 13

3 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 11. · Stoke 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	4	3	1	0	+10	10
2	Man City	4	3	1	0	+8	10
3	Chelsea	4	3	0	1	+3	9
4	Watford	4	2	2	0	+4	8
5	Southampton	5	2	2	1	+0	8
6	Tottenham	4	2	1	1	+4	7
7	Huddersfield	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Burnley	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Liverpool	4	2	1	1	+0	7
10	West Brom	4	2	1	1	+0	7
11	Newcastle	4	2	0	2	+1	6
12	Arsenal	4	2	0	2	-1	6
13	Stoke	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Brighton	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Swansea	4	1	1	2	-3	4
16	Everton	4	1	1	2	-4	4
17	Leicester	4	1	0	3	-2	3
18	West Ham	4	1	0	3	-6	3
19	Bournemouth	5	1	0	4	-6	3
20	Crystal Palace	5	0	0	5	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
3	Arsenal	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Man City	2	1	1	0	+5	4
5	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Huddersfield	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Southampton	3	1	1	1	-1	4
9	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Chelsea	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Leicester	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+1	3
13	Brighton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Bournemouth	3	1	0	2	-2	3
16	Everton	2	1	0	1	-2	3
17	Watford	2	0	2	0	+0	2
18	Tottenham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Swansea	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	Crystal Palace	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Watford	2	2	0	0	+4	6
3	Man City	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Chelsea	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Man United	2	1	1	0	+4	4
6	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Burnley	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Southampton	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	West Brom	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-1	1
13	Everton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
14	Brighton	3	0	1	2	-3	1
15	Liverpool	2	0	1	1	-5	1
16	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	Leicester	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Bournemouth	2	0	0	2	-4	0
19	Arsenal	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.