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Bundesliga
Referee: Bastian Dankert
0–1
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Werder Bremen FC Ingolstadt 04
Last 6 — all competitions · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
75%
25%
Both score Ø 38%
75%
0%
Average goals
3,0
1,5
Scored
1,5
0,5
Conceded
1,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,5
This season — Bundesliga · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
75%
25%
Both score Ø 38%
75%
0%
Average goals
3,0
1,5
Scored
1,5
0,5
Conceded
1,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%
13 Shots 14
4 Shots on target 4
1 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
8 Corners 5
0 Offside 1
0 Free kicks against 0
3 Yellow cards 4
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Werder Bremen 7. · FC Ingolstadt 04 10.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Dortmund 4 4 0 0 +12 12
2 Bayern Munich 4 4 0 0 +10 12
3 Mainz 5 3 0 2 +4 9
4 Wolfsburg 4 2 2 0 +4 8
5 Ein Frankfurt 4 2 1 1 +6 7
6 Schalke 04 4 2 1 1 +1 7
7 Werder Bremen 4 2 1 1 +0 7
8 Hertha 4 2 1 1 +0 7
9 FC Koln 4 2 1 1 -1 7
10 FC Ingolstadt 04 4 2 1 1 -2 7
11 Darmstadt 4 1 3 0 +1 6
12 Hamburg 4 2 0 2 -2 6
13 Leverkusen 4 2 0 2 -2 6
14 Augsburg 4 0 1 3 -3 1
15 Hoffenheim 5 0 1 4 -6 1
16 Hannover 4 0 1 3 -6 1
17 Stuttgart 4 0 0 4 -7 0
18 M'gladbach 4 0 0 4 -9 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Werder Bremen FC Ingolstadt 04
26′
🟨 Benjamin Hübner
28′
🟨 Pascal Groß
39′
🟨 Markus Suttner
Half-time 0–0
C. Pizarro 🔁
↦ U. Garcia
46′
Theodor Gebre Selassie 🟨
56′
Assani Lukimya 🟨
66′
67′
🔁 M. Hartmann
↦ L. Hinterseer
F. Kroos 🔁
↦ C. Fritz
73′
L. Öztunali 🔁
↦ A. Jóhannsson
80′
82′
🟨 Alfredo Morales
Claudio Pizarro 🟨
86′
88′
🔁 E. Kachunga
↦ M. Leckie
Philipp Bargfrede 🟥
90′
93′
M. Hartmann 0–1
94′
🔁 R. Brégerie
↦ S. Lex
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Werder Bremen

42 F. Wiedwald G
5 A. Lukimya D
23 T. Gebre Selassie D
2 S. García D
7 J. Vestergaard D
20 U. Garcia D
8 C. Fritz M
22 F. Bartels F
44 P. Bargfrede M
9 A. Jóhannsson F
21 A. Ujah F
Bench (7)
14 C. Pizarro
18 F. Kroos
11 L. Öztunali
4 Gálvez
30 M. Zetterer
35 M. Eggestein
37 J. Sternberg

FC Ingolstadt 04

1 R. Özcan G
28 T. Levels D
29 M. Suttner D
5 B. Hübner D
8 Roger M
34 M. Matip D
6 A. Morales M
10 P. Groß F
14 S. Lex F
16 L. Hinterseer F
7 M. Leckie M
Bench (7)
9 M. Hartmann
25 E. Kachunga
18 R. Brégerie
20 K. Engel
21 D. da Costa
23 R. Bauer
26 Ø. Nyland

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Bastian Dankert · 75 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.