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Bundesliga
Referee: Guido Winkmann
Wolfsburg
U T U U T
1–3
Full-time
Bayern Munich
S S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Wolfsburg Bayern Munich
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
1,0
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
67%
33%
Average goals
3,0
2,7
Scored
1,3
1,5
Conceded
1,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,3
This season — Bundesliga · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 43%
29%
57%
Points per game
1,3
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 64%
71%
57%
Both score Ø 57%
71%
43%
Average goals
3,0
2,9
Scored
1,4
1,7
Conceded
1,6
1,1
Goal diff per game
-0,1
+0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

45% Possession 55%
9 Shots 13
1 Shots on target 11
3 Blocked shots 1
8 Goalkeeper saves 0
2 Corners 9
2 Offside 2
9 Free kicks against 13
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Wolfsburg 9. · Bayern Munich 7.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Dortmund 7 5 2 0 +15 17
2 RB Leipzig 7 4 2 1 +7 14
3 M'gladbach 7 4 2 1 +6 14
4 Werder Bremen 7 4 2 1 +5 14
5 Hertha 7 4 2 1 +5 14
6 Ein Frankfurt 8 4 1 3 +7 13
7 Bayern Munich 7 4 1 2 +4 13
8 Mainz 7 2 3 2 +0 9
9 Wolfsburg 7 2 3 2 -1 9
10 Augsburg 7 2 2 3 +1 8
11 Freiburg 7 2 2 3 -4 8
12 Nurnberg 7 2 2 3 -9 8
13 Hoffenheim 7 2 1 4 -1 7
14 Leverkusen 7 2 1 4 -6 7
15 Schalke 04 7 2 0 5 -4 6
16 Hannover 7 1 2 4 -6 5
17 Stuttgart 7 1 2 4 -7 5
18 Fortuna Dusseldorf 8 1 2 5 -12 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Wolfsburg Bayern Munich
30′
R. Lewandowski 0–1
M. Hummels
33′
🟨 Thiago Alcántara
Maximilian Arnold 🟨
35′
44′
🟨 Arjen Robben
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 Rafinha
↦ D. Alaba
48′
R. Lewandowski 0–2
57′
🟨 Arjen Robben
57′
🟥 Arjen Robben
A. Mehmedi 🔁
↦ R. Steffen
60′
D. Ginczek 🔁
↦ J. Brekalo
60′
1–2 W. Weghorst
A. Mehmedi
63′
66′
🔁 L. Goretzka
↦ S. Gnabry
Y. Mallı 🔁
↦ E. Rexhbecaj
71′
72′
J. Rodríguez 1–3
R. Lewandowski
Wout Weghorst 🟨
81′
84′
🔁 Renato Sanches
↦ J. Rodríguez
88′
🟨 Manuel Neuer
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

Wolfsburg

4-3-3
1 K. Casteels G
31 R. Knoche D
15 J. Roussillon D
25 J. Brooks D
13 Y. Gerhardt M
2 William D
27 M. Arnold M
8 R. Steffen M
7 J. Brekalo M
37 E. Rexhbecaj M
9 W. Weghorst F
Bench (7)
14 A. Mehmedi
33 D. Ginczek
10 Y. Mallı
3 P. Verhaegh
12 P. Pervan
17 F. Uduokhai
32 M. Tisserand

Coach: B. Labbadia

Bayern Munich

4-1-4-1
1 M. Neuer G
5 M. Hummels D
27 D. Alaba D
4 N. Süle D
32 J. Kimmich D
10 A. Robben M
8 Javi Martínez M
11 J. Rodríguez M
6 Thiago Alcântara M
22 S. Gnabry M
9 R. Lewandowski F
Bench (7)
13 Rafinha
18 L. Goretzka
35 Renato Sanches
7 F. Ribéry
17 J. Boateng
25 T. Müller
26 S. Ulreich

Coach: N. Kovač

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Guido Winkmann · 50 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,28 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.