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Bundesliga

Referee: Sven Jablonski

Mainz

S S T T T

3–0

Full-time

Schalke 04

S U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Schalke 04

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

2,5

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-0,2

This season — Bundesliga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 30%

32%

27%

Points per game

1,2

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

59%

50%

Both score Ø 57%

59%

55%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

40% Possession 60%

20 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 3

4 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 11. · Schalke 04 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	22	15	6	1	+31	51
2	Bayern Munich	22	15	3	4	+24	48
3	M'gladbach	22	13	4	5	+20	43
4	RB Leipzig	22	12	5	5	+22	41
5	Leverkusen	22	11	3	8	+7	36
6	Wolfsburg	22	10	5	7	+5	35
7	Ein Frankfurt	22	9	7	6	+13	34
8	Hoffenheim	22	8	9	5	+12	33
9	Werder Bremen	23	8	8	7	+4	32
10	Hertha	22	8	8	6	+3	32
11	Mainz	22	7	6	9	-13	27
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	22	7	4	11	-16	25
13	Freiburg	22	5	9	8	-8	24
14	Schalke 04	22	6	5	11	-7	23
15	Augsburg	22	4	6	12	-9	18
16	Stuttgart	23	4	4	15	-32	16
17	Hannover	22	3	5	14	-27	14
18	Nurnberg	22	2	7	13	-29	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	11	9	2	0	+22	29
2	M'gladbach	10	9	0	1	+19	27
3	RB Leipzig	11	7	3	1	+17	24
4	Bayern Munich	10	6	3	1	+10	21
5	Leverkusen	11	6	1	4	+2	19
6	Ein Frankfurt	11	5	3	3	+10	18
7	Hoffenheim	12	4	5	3	+6	17
8	Werder Bremen	12	4	5	3	+3	17
9	Hertha	11	4	5	2	+2	17
10	Mainz	11	4	4	3	-2	16
11	Wolfsburg	11	4	3	4	-1	15
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	5	0	6	-2	15
13	Freiburg	11	3	5	3	+0	14
14	Schalke 04	11	4	1	6	-3	13
15	Nurnberg	12	2	5	5	-4	11
16	Stuttgart	11	3	2	6	-12	11
17	Augsburg	11	2	4	5	+0	10
18	Hannover	11	3	1	7	-9	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	12	9	0	3	+14	27
2	Dortmund	11	6	4	1	+9	22
3	Wolfsburg	11	6	2	3	+6	20
4	Leverkusen	11	5	2	4	+5	17
5	RB Leipzig	11	5	2	4	+5	17
6	Hoffenheim	10	4	4	2	+6	16
7	Ein Frankfurt	11	4	4	3	+3	16
8	M'gladbach	12	4	4	4	+1	16
9	Hertha	11	4	3	4	+1	15
10	Werder Bremen	11	4	3	4	+1	15
11	Mainz	11	3	2	6	-11	11
12	Schalke 04	11	2	4	5	-4	10
13	Freiburg	11	2	4	5	-8	10
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	2	4	5	-14	10
15	Augsburg	11	2	2	7	-9	8
16	Stuttgart	12	1	2	9	-20	5
17	Hannover	11	0	4	7	-18	4
18	Nurnberg	10	0	2	8	-25	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.