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Serie A
Referee: Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni
Cagliari
T
2–2
Full-time
Roma
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cagliari Roma
Last 6 — all competitions · 1/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 92%
100%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
100%
50%
Average goals
4,0
3,7
Scored
1,0
2,8
Conceded
3,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
-2,0
+2,0
This season — Serie A · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
0%
100%
Points per game
0,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
100%
0%
Average goals
4,0
4,0
Scored
1,0
4,0
Conceded
3,0
0,0
Goal diff per game
-2,0
+4,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

48% Possession 52%
18 Shots 21
5 Shots on target 7
6 Blocked shots 4
5 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 3
4 Offside 1
21 Free kicks against 9
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Cagliari 19. · Roma 3. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Juventus 2 2 0 0 +2 6
2 Napoli 2 1 1 0 +2 4
3 Roma 1 1 0 0 +4 3
4 Genoa 1 1 0 0 +2 3
5 Chievo 1 1 0 0 +2 3
6 Bologna 1 1 0 0 +1 3
7 Sampdoria 1 1 0 0 +1 3
8 Sassuolo 1 1 0 0 +1 3
9 Lazio 2 1 0 1 +0 3
10 Milan 2 1 0 1 -1 3
11 Pescara 1 0 1 0 +0 1
12 Palermo 2 0 1 1 -1 1
13 Inter 2 0 1 1 -2 1
14 Atalanta 1 0 0 1 -1 0
15 Torino 1 0 0 1 -1 0
16 Fiorentina 1 0 0 1 -1 0
17 Crotone 1 0 0 1 -1 0
18 Empoli 1 0 0 1 -1 0
19 Cagliari 1 0 0 1 -2 0
20 Udinese 1 0 0 1 -4 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Cagliari Roma
6′
⚽ D. Perotti 0–1
Mauricio Isla 🟨
21′
Nicola Murru 🟨
23′
Bartosz Salamon 🟨
39′
45′
🟨 Alessandro Florenzi
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 E. Džeko
↦ S. El Shaarawy
46′
⚽ K. Strootman 0–2
E. Džeko
1–2 M. Borriello ⚽
56′
64′
🔁 F. Fazio
↦ D. Perotti
N. Giannetti 🔁
↦ S. Padoin
71′
79′
🔁 L. Paredes
↦ K. Strootman
A. Deiola 🔁
↦ N. Barella
80′
2–2 M. Sau ⚽
M. Isla
87′
G. Munari 🔁
↦ M. Sau
91′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Cagliari

4-3-1-2
30 M. Storari G
2 Bruno Alves D
35 B. Salamon D
29 N. Murru D
20 S. Padoin M
8 D. Di Gennaro M
3 M. Isla D
21 A. Ioniţă M
18 N. Barella M
22 M. Borriello F
25 M. Sau F
Bench (8)
32 N. Giannetti
27 A. Deiola
16 G. Munari
1 Rafael
13 R. Colombo
15 L. Krajnc
19 F. Pisacane
24 M. Capuano

Coach: M. Rastelli

Roma

4-3-3
1 W. Szczęsny G
15 T. Vermaelen D
44 K. Manolas D
13 Bruno Peres D
16 D. De Rossi M
4 R. Nainggolan M
6 K. Strootman M
8 D. Perotti F
11 Mohamed Salah F
24 A. Florenzi D
92 S. El Shaarawy F
Bench (11)
9 E. Džeko
20 F. Fazio
5 L. Paredes
7 J. Iturbe
17 M. Seck
19 Alisson
27 F. Ricci
30 Gerson
33 Emerson
91 R. Marchizza
97 S. Umar

Coach: L. Spalletti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Paolo Silvio Mazzoleni · 69 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,5 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,35 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.