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Serie A

Referee: Daniele Orsato

Fiorentina

U U U U U

0–3

Full-time

Juventus

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Juventus

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

1,5

2,5

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

0,8

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,5

This season — Serie A · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 62%

31%

92%

Points per game

1,4

2,8

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

23%

46%

Both score Ø 54%

54%

Average goals

2,2

2,8

Scored

1,4

2,2

Conceded

0,8

0,6

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

45% Possession 55%

17 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 6

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 9

16 Free kicks against 8

6 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 10. · Juventus 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	13	12	1	0	+20	37
2	Napoli	13	9	2	2	+13	29
3	Inter	13	9	1	3	+15	28
4	Lazio	13	7	2	4	+4	23
5	Milan	13	6	4	3	+5	22
6	Parma	13	6	2	5	-2	20
7	Roma	13	5	4	4	+6	19
8	Sassuolo	13	5	4	4	+2	19
9	Atalanta	13	5	3	5	+8	18
10	Fiorentina	13	4	6	3	+8	18
11	Torino	13	4	6	3	+2	18
12	Sampdoria	13	4	4	5	+1	16
13	Cagliari	13	3	6	4	-4	15
14	Genoa	13	4	3	6	-9	15
15	Spal	14	4	2	8	-10	14
16	Empoli	14	3	4	7	-8	13
17	Udinese	13	3	3	7	-6	12
18	Bologna	13	2	5	6	-7	11
19	Frosinone	13	1	4	8	-18	7
20	Chievo	13	0	4	9	-20	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	7	6	1	0	+11	19
2	Napoli	7	5	2	0	+11	17
3	Inter	7	5	1	1	+11	16
4	Fiorentina	6	4	2	0	+11	14
5	Lazio	7	4	1	2	+4	13
6	Milan	6	4	1	1	+3	13
7	Roma	6	3	2	1	+7	11
8	Sassuolo	6	3	2	1	+2	11
9	Genoa	7	3	2	2	+1	11
10	Parma	7	3	2	2	+1	11
11	Atalanta	6	3	1	2	+8	10
12	Cagliari	6	2	4	0	+3	10
13	Empoli	7	3	1	3	+0	10
14	Sampdoria	6	2	2	2	+0	8
15	Bologna	7	2	2	3	-2	8
16	Spal	7	2	2	3	-3	8
17	Torino	6	2	1	3	-2	7
18	Udinese	7	2	1	4	-5	7
19	Frosinone	6	0	3	3	-8	3
20	Chievo	7	0	2	5	-10	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	6	6	0	0	+9	18
2	Inter	6	4	0	2	+4	12
3	Napoli	6	4	0	2	+2	12
4	Torino	7	2	5	0	+4	11
5	Lazio	6	3	1	2	+0	10
6	Milan	7	2	3	2	+2	9
7	Parma	6	3	0	3	-3	9
8	Sampdoria	7	2	2	3	+1	8
9	Atalanta	7	2	2	3	+0	8
10	Sassuolo	7	2	2	3	+0	8
11	Roma	7	2	2	3	-1	8
12	Spal	7	2	0	5	-7	6
13	Udinese	6	1	2	3	-1	5
14	Cagliari	7	1	2	4	-7	5
15	Fiorentina	7	0	4	3	-3	4
16	Genoa	6	1	1	4	-10	4
17	Frosinone	7	1	1	5	-10	4
18	Bologna	6	0	3	3	-5	3
19	Empoli	7	0	3	4	-8	3
20	Chievo	6	0	2	4	-10	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.