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Ligue 1

Referee: Francois Letexier

Toulouse

S U T T U

1–0

Full-time

Amiens

T S S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Amiens

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 8/7 matches

Win Ø 27%

25%

29%

Points per game

1,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

38%

29%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,1

0,6

Conceded

1,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

56% Possession 44%

15 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 0

3 Offside 9

15 Free kicks against 21

1 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Toulouse 14. · Amiens 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	9	8	1	0	+23	25
2	Monaco	9	6	1	2	+12	19
3	Lyon	9	4	4	1	+5	16
4	Marseille	8	5	1	2	+3	16
5	Nantes	8	5	1	2	+1	16
6	Caen	8	5	0	3	+3	15
7	Bordeaux	8	4	3	1	+2	15
8	St Etienne	8	4	2	2	+2	14
9	Troyes	8	3	2	3	+0	11
10	Nice	8	3	1	4	+0	10
11	Guingamp	8	3	1	4	-3	10
12	Angers	8	1	6	1	+1	9
13	Montpellier	8	2	3	3	-1	9
14	Toulouse	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Rennes	8	1	3	4	-2	6
16	Amiens	7	2	0	5	-6	6
17	Dijon	9	1	3	5	-8	6
18	Lille	7	1	2	4	-7	5
19	Strasbourg	8	1	2	5	-8	5
20	Metz	8	1	0	7	-11	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	5	0	0	+15	15
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	+6	11
3	Monaco	4	3	1	0	+9	10
4	Bordeaux	3	3	0	0	+5	9
5	Caen	4	3	0	1	+2	9
6	St Etienne	4	2	2	0	+4	8
7	Nice	5	2	1	2	+3	7
8	Marseille	4	2	1	1	+3	7
9	Nantes	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Guingamp	4	2	1	1	+0	7
11	Toulouse	3	2	0	1	+1	6
12	Montpellier	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Troyes	5	1	2	2	-1	5
14	Lille	4	1	1	2	-3	4
15	Dijon	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	Strasbourg	3	1	0	2	+1	3
17	Angers	4	0	3	1	-1	3
18	Amiens	3	1	0	2	-1	3
19	Rennes	4	0	1	3	-3	1
20	Metz	4	0	0	4	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+8	10
2	Monaco	5	3	0	2	+3	9
3	Marseille	4	3	0	1	+0	9
4	Nantes	4	3	0	1	+0	9
5	Angers	4	1	3	0	+2	6
6	Troyes	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Caen	4	2	0	2	+1	6
8	St Etienne	4	2	0	2	-2	6
9	Bordeaux	5	1	3	1	-3	6
10	Rennes	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	Lyon	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Montpellier	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Guingamp	4	1	0	3	-3	3
14	Metz	4	1	0	3	-3	3
15	Nice	3	1	0	2	-3	3
16	Amiens	4	1	0	3	-5	3
17	Dijon	4	0	2	2	-4	2
18	Toulouse	5	0	2	3	-7	2
19	Strasbourg	5	0	2	3	-9	2
20	Lille	3	0	1	2	-4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.