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Eredivisie
Referee: Edwin Van de Graaf
Roda
T T T T S
1–0
Full-time
NAC Breda
U T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roda NAC Breda
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,5
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,0
3,0
Scored
0,8
1,3
Conceded
2,2
1,7
Goal diff per game
-1,3
-0,3
This season — Eredivisie · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 22%
14%
29%
Points per game
0,4
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 71%
71%
71%
Both score Ø 71%
71%
71%
Average goals
3,4
3,3
Scored
1,0
1,3
Conceded
2,4
2,0
Goal diff per game
-1,4
-0,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%
12 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 3
1 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 1
0 Offside 4
14 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Roda 17. · NAC Breda 14.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 PSV Eindhoven 7 6 0 1 +15 18
2 Feyenoord 7 5 0 2 +10 15
3 Zwolle 7 4 2 1 +3 14
4 Heerenveen 7 4 2 1 +1 14
5 Ajax 7 4 1 2 +9 13
6 Vitesse 6 4 1 1 +8 13
7 VVV Venlo 7 3 3 1 +4 12
8 AZ Alkmaar 7 4 0 3 -1 12
9 Den Haag 7 3 1 3 -3 10
10 Utrecht 6 3 0 3 -4 9
11 Groningen 7 2 2 3 -2 8
12 Heracles 7 2 2 3 -2 8
13 Excelsior 7 2 1 4 -4 7
14 NAC Breda 7 2 1 4 -5 7
15 Twente 7 2 0 5 -1 6
16 Sparta Rotterdam 7 1 2 4 -6 5
17 Roda 7 1 0 6 -10 3
18 Willem II 7 1 0 6 -12 3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Roda NAC Breda
Half-time 0–0
46′
🔁 J. Horsfield
↦ A. Verschueren
Adil Auassar 🟨
64′
65′
🟨 Rai Vloet
W. Ndenge 🔁
↦ O. Gnjatić
66′
N. Rutjes 🔁
↦ M. El Makrini
74′
G. van Velzen 🔁
↦ M. Engels
79′
79′
🔁 T. Enevoldsen
↦ T. Ambrose
86′
🔁 R. Sprangers
↦ Manu García
90′
🟨 Richelor Sprangers
1–0 A. Auassar
91′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Roda

4-2-3-1
1 H. Jurjus G
4 C. Kum D
22 A. Götz D
17 J. Vansteenkiste D
8 A. Auassar D
6 M. El Makrini M
15 O. Gnjatić M
10 Simon Gustafson M
9 D. Schahin F
7 M. Rosheuvel M
14 M. Engels M
Bench (11)
13 W. Ndenge
23 N. Rutjes
11 G. van Velzen
18 J. Vancamp
5 A. van Peppen
3 F. Ananou
30 B. Derksen
24 J. Munkana
16 F. Kurto
2 H. Dijkhuizen
20 D. Werker

Coach: R. Molenaar

NAC Breda

4-3-3
12 M. Birighitti G
3 M. Koch D
22 Pablo Marí D
69 Angeliño D
5 K. Mets D
10 R. Vloet M
6 A. Verschueren M
8 M. El Allouchi M
19 Manu García M
7 G. Korte F
9 T. Ambrose F
Bench (10)
35 J. Horsfield
87 T. Enevoldsen
45 R. Sprangers
18 B. Meijers
30 G. Nijholt
17 B. Brusselers
33 M. Reuvers
23 N. Bertrams
2 F. Sporkslede
1 A. Noppert

Coach: S. Vreven

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Edwin Van de Graaf · 50 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
16,8 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.