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Ligue 1

Referee: C Turpin

Lyon

S T S T U

4–2

Full-time

Marseille

S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

33%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

4,0

Scored

1,5

2,7

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 50%

40%

60%

Points per game

1,4

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

20%

100%

Both score Ø 40%

20%

60%

Average goals

2,0

4,2

Scored

1,2

2,8

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+1,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

56% Possession 44%

17 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Lyon 11. · Marseille 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	6	0	0	+15	18
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	+6	13
3	Montpellier	6	3	2	1	+2	11
4	Toulouse	6	3	2	1	-1	11
5	Marseille	5	3	1	1	+7	10
6	Dijon	6	3	1	2	+3	10
7	St Etienne	6	2	3	1	-2	9
8	Strasbourg	6	2	2	2	+1	8
9	Nimes	6	2	2	2	+0	8
10	Reims	6	2	2	2	-2	8
11	Lyon	5	2	1	2	+2	7
12	Angers	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Bordeaux	6	2	1	3	-2	7
14	Rennes	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Nice	6	2	1	3	-4	7
16	Monaco	6	1	3	2	+0	6
17	Caen	6	1	3	2	-2	6
18	Nantes	6	1	2	3	-4	5
19	Amiens	6	1	1	4	-3	4
20	Guingamp	6	0	0	6	-13	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	3	3	0	0	+9	9
2	Lille	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Marseille	3	2	1	0	+8	7
4	Toulouse	3	2	1	0	+2	7
5	St Etienne	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Lyon	3	2	0	1	+3	6
7	Rennes	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Montpellier	4	1	2	1	+0	5
9	Strasbourg	3	1	1	1	+1	4
10	Angers	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Reims	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Bordeaux	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Amiens	3	1	0	2	+1	3
14	Nimes	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Dijon	3	1	0	2	-2	3
16	Nice	3	1	0	2	-4	3
17	Caen	2	0	2	0	+0	2
18	Monaco	3	0	2	1	-1	2
19	Nantes	3	0	2	1	-2	2
20	Guingamp	3	0	0	3	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Dijon	3	2	1	0	+5	7
3	Montpellier	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Nimes	4	1	2	1	+0	5
5	Monaco	3	1	1	1	+1	4
6	Lille	3	1	1	1	+0	4
7	Strasbourg	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Nice	3	1	1	1	+0	4
9	Caen	4	1	1	2	-2	4
10	Reims	3	1	1	1	-2	4
11	Toulouse	3	1	1	1	-3	4
12	Marseille	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Bordeaux	3	1	0	2	-1	3
14	Angers	3	1	0	2	-1	3
15	Nantes	3	1	0	2	-2	3
16	St Etienne	3	0	2	1	-4	2
17	Lyon	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Rennes	3	0	1	2	-3	1
19	Amiens	3	0	1	2	-4	1
20	Guingamp	3	0	0	3	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.