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Eredivisie

Referee: Martin Van den Kerkhof

Roda

U U T U U

1–2

Full-time

Excelsior

T T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roda Excelsior

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

1,7

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

This season — Eredivisie · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 28%

33%

22%

Points per game

1,4

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

33%

44%

Both score Ø 45%

56%

33%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

59% Possession 41%

12 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 6

2 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roda 7. · Excelsior 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	9	7	1	1	+17	22
2	Feyenoord	9	7	1	1	+10	22
3	PSV Eindhoven	10	6	3	1	+13	21
4	Heracles	10	7	0	3	+9	21
5	Vitesse	9	5	2	2	+15	17
6	Zwolle	9	5	2	2	+3	17
7	Roda	9	3	4	2	+0	13
8	Nijmegen	9	4	1	4	+0	13
9	Groningen	9	4	1	4	-4	13
10	AZ Alkmaar	9	3	3	3	+0	12
11	Utrecht	9	2	4	3	-1	10
12	Excelsior	9	2	3	4	-4	9
13	Twente	10	2	3	5	-8	9
14	Heerenveen	10	1	5	4	-7	8
15	Willem II	10	1	4	5	-5	7
16	Den Haag	9	1	4	4	-6	7
17	Cambuur	9	0	5	4	-16	5
18	De Graafschap	10	0	2	8	-16	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Groningen	5	4	1	0	+7	13
2	Vitesse	4	4	0	0	+14	12
3	Heracles	5	4	0	1	+6	12
4	Feyenoord	4	4	0	0	+6	12
5	PSV Eindhoven	4	3	1	0	+5	10
6	Zwolle	5	3	1	1	+1	10
7	Ajax	4	3	0	1	+8	9
8	Nijmegen	4	3	0	1	+4	9
9	Utrecht	5	2	3	0	+3	9
10	Roda	5	2	3	0	+3	9
11	Excelsior	4	2	1	1	+2	7
12	AZ Alkmaar	5	2	1	2	+0	7
13	Twente	5	2	1	2	-3	7
14	Heerenveen	5	1	3	1	-1	6
15	Willem II	5	1	2	2	+0	5
16	Den Haag	5	0	4	1	-1	4
17	Cambuur	5	0	2	3	-13	2
18	De Graafschap	5	0	1	4	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	5	4	1	0	+9	13
2	PSV Eindhoven	6	3	2	1	+8	11
3	Feyenoord	5	3	1	1	+4	10
4	Heracles	5	3	0	2	+3	9
5	Zwolle	4	2	1	1	+2	7
6	Vitesse	5	1	2	2	+1	5
7	AZ Alkmaar	4	1	2	1	+0	5
8	Roda	4	1	1	2	-3	4
9	Nijmegen	5	1	1	3	-4	4
10	Cambuur	4	0	3	1	-3	3
11	Den Haag	4	1	0	3	-5	3
12	Twente	5	0	2	3	-5	2
13	Willem II	5	0	2	3	-5	2
14	Excelsior	5	0	2	3	-6	2
15	Heerenveen	5	0	2	3	-6	2
16	Utrecht	4	0	1	3	-4	1
17	De Graafschap	5	0	1	4	-9	1
18	Groningen	4	0	0	4	-11	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.