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La Liga

Referee: Carlos Clos Gomez

Celta

S S U U S

1–3

Full-time

Real Madrid

S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

2,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

2,0

2,2

Conceded

1,2

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,8

This season — La Liga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 63%

63%

Points per game

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

75%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

75%

25%

Average goals

3,1

2,5

Scored

2,1

2,3

Conceded

1,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

50% Possession 50%

17 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

0 Free kicks against 0

6 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Celta 2. · Real Madrid 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	8	5	3	0	+16	18
2	Celta	8	5	3	0	+9	18
3	Barcelona	8	6	0	2	+6	18
4	Ath Madrid	8	5	1	2	+8	16
5	Villarreal	8	5	1	2	+6	16
6	La Coruna	8	3	4	1	+5	13
7	Eibar	8	3	4	1	+4	13
8	Valencia	8	3	3	2	+2	12
9	Espanol	9	4	0	5	-10	12
10	Betis	8	3	2	3	-4	11
11	Getafe	8	3	1	4	+2	10
12	Vallecano	9	3	1	5	-6	10
13	Sp Gijon	8	2	3	3	-1	9
14	Sevilla	8	2	3	3	-4	9
15	Ath Bilbao	8	2	2	4	-2	8
16	Sociedad	8	1	3	4	-3	6
17	Malaga	8	1	3	4	-4	6
18	Levante	8	1	3	4	-9	6
19	Las Palmas	8	1	2	5	-7	5
20	Granada	8	1	2	5	-8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Real Madrid	4	3	1	0	+9	10
3	Getafe	4	3	0	1	+7	9
4	Villarreal	4	3	0	1	+4	9
5	Celta	4	2	2	0	+6	8
6	Valencia	4	2	2	0	+4	8
7	Ath Madrid	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Vallecano	5	2	1	2	+0	7
9	Ath Bilbao	4	2	0	2	+2	6
10	Sevilla	4	2	0	2	-2	6
11	Espanol	4	2	0	2	-5	6
12	La Coruna	4	1	2	1	+2	5
13	Malaga	4	1	2	1	+1	5
14	Levante	4	1	2	1	+0	5
15	Eibar	4	1	2	1	+0	5
16	Las Palmas	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Betis	4	1	1	2	-2	4
18	Sp Gijon	4	0	2	2	-2	2
19	Sociedad	4	0	2	2	-3	2
20	Granada	4	0	1	3	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Celta	4	3	1	0	+3	10
2	Ath Madrid	4	3	0	1	+6	9
3	Real Madrid	4	2	2	0	+7	8
4	Eibar	4	2	2	0	+4	8
5	La Coruna	4	2	2	0	+3	8
6	Villarreal	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Sp Gijon	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Betis	4	2	1	1	-2	7
9	Barcelona	4	2	0	2	-2	6
10	Espanol	5	2	0	3	-5	6
11	Sociedad	4	1	1	2	+0	4
12	Granada	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Valencia	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Sevilla	4	0	3	1	-2	3
15	Vallecano	4	1	0	3	-6	3
16	Ath Bilbao	4	0	2	2	-4	2
17	Getafe	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Malaga	4	0	1	3	-5	1
19	Las Palmas	4	0	1	3	-6	1
20	Levante	4	0	1	3	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.