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Eredivisie

Referee: Bjorn Kuipers

Excelsior

T T T T T

3–2

Full-time

Sparta Rotterdam

U U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Sparta Rotterdam

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

0,3

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-0,2

This season — Eredivisie · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 29%

25%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

58%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

58%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

39% Possession 61%

14 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 16. · Sparta Rotterdam 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	12	9	2	1	+21	29
2	Ajax	12	8	3	1	+15	27
3	PSV Eindhoven	13	7	5	1	+14	26
4	Heerenveen	12	6	4	2	+11	22
5	Twente	12	5	4	3	+4	19
6	AZ Alkmaar	10	4	5	1	+6	17
7	Sparta Rotterdam	12	4	4	4	+1	16
8	Vitesse	13	4	4	5	+1	16
9	Utrecht	10	4	3	3	+1	15
10	Heracles	13	3	6	4	-3	15
11	Den Haag	12	4	2	6	-6	14
12	Zwolle	12	3	4	5	-9	13
13	Nijmegen	12	2	6	4	-7	12
14	Willem II	13	2	5	6	-9	11
15	Go Ahead Eagles	13	3	2	8	-11	11
16	Excelsior	12	3	1	8	-9	10
17	Roda	12	1	6	5	-11	9
18	Groningen	11	1	4	6	-9	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	6	4	2	0	+12	14
2	Ajax	6	4	1	1	+6	13
3	Twente	6	3	2	1	+5	11
4	Heerenveen	5	3	2	0	+5	11
5	Sparta Rotterdam	6	3	2	1	+3	11
6	AZ Alkmaar	6	2	4	0	+4	10
7	Utrecht	6	3	1	2	+1	10
8	Go Ahead Eagles	6	3	1	2	+1	10
9	PSV Eindhoven	6	2	3	1	+1	9
10	Heracles	6	2	2	2	+0	8
11	Zwolle	7	2	2	3	-6	8
12	Vitesse	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Den Haag	6	2	1	3	-2	7
14	Nijmegen	7	1	4	2	-4	7
15	Excelsior	6	2	0	4	-2	6
16	Willem II	7	1	3	3	-5	6
17	Roda	5	0	2	3	-5	2
18	Groningen	5	0	2	3	-9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	2	0	+13	17
2	Feyenoord	6	5	0	1	+9	15
3	Ajax	6	4	2	0	+9	14
4	Heerenveen	7	3	2	2	+6	11
5	Vitesse	7	2	3	2	+2	9
6	Twente	6	2	2	2	-1	8
7	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Heracles	7	1	4	2	-3	7
9	Den Haag	6	2	1	3	-4	7
10	Roda	7	1	4	2	-6	7
11	Groningen	6	1	2	3	+0	5
12	Utrecht	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Sparta Rotterdam	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Zwolle	5	1	2	2	-3	5
15	Nijmegen	5	1	2	2	-3	5
16	Willem II	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Excelsior	6	1	1	4	-7	4
18	Go Ahead Eagles	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.