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Championship

Referee: Oliver Langford

Derby

S U T S S

3–0

Full-time

Rotherham

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Rotherham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,8

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,3

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

0,7

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,3

This season — Championship · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 19%

31%

Points per game

1,3

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

13%

81%

Both score Ø 44%

25%

63%

Average goals

1,6

3,4

Scored

0,8

1,1

Conceded

0,8

2,4

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

63% Possession 37%

20 Shots 8

11 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 8

5 Corners 7

2 Offside 0

6 Free kicks against 19

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 16. · Rotherham 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	16	12	1	3	+21	37
2	Brighton	17	10	5	2	+16	35
3	Huddersfield	15	9	2	4	+0	29
4	Reading	16	8	4	4	+2	28
5	Norwich	16	8	3	5	+1	27
6	Leeds	16	8	2	6	+2	26
7	Birmingham	16	6	7	3	+3	25
8	Fulham	16	6	6	4	+5	24
9	Bristol City	16	7	3	6	+4	24
10	Preston	16	7	2	7	+2	23
11	Brentford	16	6	4	6	+5	22
12	Aston Villa	17	4	10	3	+1	22
13	Barnsley	16	6	3	7	+3	21
14	Ipswich	16	5	6	5	-1	21
15	Sheffield Weds	15	6	3	6	-3	21
16	Derby	16	5	5	6	-1	20
17	QPR	16	5	5	6	-5	20
18	Burton Albion	16	4	6	6	-2	18
19	Wolves	16	4	5	7	-2	17
20	Nott'm Forest	16	4	4	8	-5	16
21	Cardiff	16	4	3	9	-11	15
22	Wigan	16	3	5	8	-5	14
23	Blackburn	16	3	4	9	-9	13
24	Rotherham	16	1	4	11	-21	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	9	6	2	1	+13	20
2	Huddersfield	7	6	1	0	+6	19
3	Newcastle	8	6	0	2	+9	18
4	Norwich	8	5	1	2	+5	16
5	Bristol City	8	5	1	2	+3	16
6	Birmingham	8	4	3	1	+5	15
7	Reading	8	4	3	1	+4	15
8	Sheffield Weds	8	5	0	3	+1	15
9	Brentford	8	4	2	2	+7	14
10	Aston Villa	8	3	5	0	+5	14
11	Burton Albion	8	4	2	2	+5	14
12	Nott'm Forest	8	4	2	2	+4	14
13	Leeds	8	4	2	2	+3	14
14	Ipswich	8	3	4	1	+4	13
15	Preston	8	4	0	4	+4	12
16	Barnsley	8	3	2	3	+2	11
17	Fulham	8	2	3	3	+0	9
18	Wigan	8	2	3	3	-1	9
19	Derby	8	2	3	3	-1	9
20	Blackburn	8	2	3	3	-2	9
21	QPR	8	2	3	3	-6	9
22	Wolves	8	2	2	4	-3	8
23	Cardiff	8	2	1	5	-6	7
24	Rotherham	8	1	3	4	-4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	8	6	1	1	+12	19
2	Fulham	8	4	3	1	+5	15
3	Brighton	8	4	3	1	+3	15
4	Reading	8	4	1	3	-2	13
5	Leeds	8	4	0	4	-1	12
6	QPR	8	3	2	3	+1	11
7	Derby	8	3	2	3	+0	11
8	Preston	8	3	2	3	-2	11
9	Norwich	8	3	2	3	-4	11
10	Barnsley	8	3	1	4	+1	10
11	Birmingham	8	2	4	2	-2	10
12	Huddersfield	8	3	1	4	-6	10
13	Wolves	8	2	3	3	+1	9
14	Bristol City	8	2	2	4	+1	8
15	Brentford	8	2	2	4	-2	8
16	Aston Villa	9	1	5	3	-4	8
17	Cardiff	8	2	2	4	-5	8
18	Ipswich	8	2	2	4	-5	8
19	Sheffield Weds	7	1	3	3	-4	6
20	Wigan	8	1	2	5	-4	5
21	Burton Albion	8	0	4	4	-7	4
22	Blackburn	8	1	1	6	-7	4
23	Nott'm Forest	8	0	2	6	-9	2
24	Rotherham	8	0	1	7	-17	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.