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Primeira Liga
Referee: Jorge de Sousa
Rio Ave
S S S U T
1–2
Full-time
Porto
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Porto
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,2
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 25%
33%
17%
Average goals
1,8
2,7
Scored
1,3
2,2
Conceded
0,5
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,7
This season — Primeira Liga · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 80%
60%
100%
Points per game
2,0
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
20%
60%
Both score Ø 20%
40%
0%
Average goals
1,8
2,4
Scored
1,2
2,4
Conceded
0,6
0,0
Goal diff per game
+0,6
+2,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

59% Possession 41%
9 Shots 13
1 Shots on target 5
5 Blocked shots 4
3 Goalkeeper saves 0
2 Corners 4
0 Offside 7
13 Free kicks against 25
5 Yellow cards 4
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Rio Ave 5. · Porto 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 6 6 0 0 +12 18
2 Porto 5 5 0 0 +12 15
3 Maritimo 6 5 0 1 +4 15
4 Benfica 6 4 1 1 +8 13
5 Rio Ave 5 3 1 1 +3 10
6 Feirense 5 2 2 1 +2 8
7 Belenenses 6 2 1 3 -5 7
8 Guimaraes 5 2 1 2 -6 7
9 Vitoria Setubal 6 1 3 2 +0 6
10 Pacos Ferreira 6 1 3 2 -1 6
11 Boavista 6 2 0 4 -2 6
12 Sp Braga 5 2 0 3 -2 6
13 Estoril 6 2 0 4 -4 6
14 Tondela 6 1 2 3 -1 5
15 Moreirense 5 1 2 2 -4 5
16 Aves 6 1 1 4 -5 4
17 Portimonense 5 1 0 4 -4 3
18 Chaves 5 0 1 4 -7 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Rio Ave Porto
Marcão 🟨
19′
Óscar Barreto 🟨
31′
Marcelo 🟨
34′
Half-time 0–1
54′
Danilo Pereira 0–1
Alex Telles
57′
🟨 Otávio
65′
🟨 Alex Telles
67′
M. Marega 0–2
Y. Brahimi
68′
🔁 Tiquinho
↦ V. Aboubakar
69′
🔁 M. Pereira
↦ Otavinho
João Novais 🔁
↦ O. Barreto
72′
A. Karamanos 🔁
↦ Guedes
75′
77′
🟨 Maxi Pereira
80′
🔁 André André
↦ Alex Telles
1–2 Nuno Santos
A. Karamanos
80′
83′
🟨 Danilo Pereira
Gabrielzinho 🔁
↦ Leandrinho
85′
Bruno Teles 🟨
86′
Marcão 🟨
89′
Marcão 🟥
89′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Rio Ave

4-4-2
1 Cássio
13 Bruno Teles D
3 Lionn D
46 Marcelo D
96 Marcão Teixeira D
10 Rúben Ribeiro M
8 Tarantini M
70 O. Barreto M
21 Leandrinho M
7 Guedes F
20 Nuno Santos F
Bench (7)
17 João Novais
14 A. Karamanos
26 Gabrielzinho
4 Nélson Monte
5 Yuri Ribeiro
18 Vitó
71 Rui Vieira

Coach: Miguel Cardoso

Porto

4-4-2
1 Casillas G
5 Ivan Marcano D
13 Alex Telles D
28 Felipe D
21 Ricardo Pereira D
16 H. Herrera M
22 Danilo Pereira M
25 Otavinho M
8 Y. Brahimi M
9 V. Aboubakar F
11 M. Marega F
Bench (7)
29 Tiquinho
2 M. Pereira
20 André André
10 Óliver Torres
12 José Sá
17 Jesús Corona
23 D. Reyes

Coach: Sérgio Conceição

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Jorge de Sousa · 70 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
28,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,25 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.