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Primeira Liga
Referee: Manuel Oliveira
Porto
S S S S U
6–1
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Porto Pacos Ferreira
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 58%
83%
33%
Points per game
2,7
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
2,3
1,2
Conceded
0,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,8
-0,2
This season — Primeira Liga · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 57%
88%
25%
Points per game
2,8
1,1
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
63%
50%
Both score Ø 38%
25%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,5
Scored
2,4
1,1
Conceded
0,4
1,4
Goal diff per game
+2,0
-0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–1

69% Possession 31%
22 Shots 7
14 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 8
6 Corners 2
4 Offside 0
12 Free kicks against 20
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Porto 1. · Pacos Ferreira 12.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 8 7 1 0 +16 22
2 Sp Lisbon 8 6 2 0 +12 20
3 Benfica 8 5 2 1 +10 17
4 Maritimo 9 5 1 3 +1 16
5 Sp Braga 8 5 0 3 +6 15
6 Rio Ave 9 4 2 3 +2 14
7 Boavista 9 4 1 4 +2 13
8 Belenenses 8 4 1 3 -1 13
9 Feirense 9 3 2 4 -2 11
10 Vitoria Setubal 9 2 4 3 +1 10
11 Guimaraes 8 3 1 4 -7 10
12 Pacos Ferreira 8 2 3 3 -2 9
13 Chaves 8 2 2 4 -2 8
14 Portimonense 8 2 1 5 -6 7
15 Tondela 8 1 3 4 -2 6
16 Aves 8 1 3 4 -5 6
17 Moreirense 8 1 3 4 -8 6
18 Estoril 9 2 0 7 -15 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Porto Pacos Ferreira
1–0 Ricardo Pereira
Y. Brahimi
4′
8′
Welthon 1–1
Mateus Silva
2–1 Felipe
Ricardo Pereira
18′
3–1 M. Marega
V. Aboubakar
25′
27′
🟨 Rui Correia
30′
🔁 Ricardo
↦ Rui Correia
4–1 M. Marega
Ricardo Pereira
33′
Half-time 4–1
46′
🟨 Francisco Afonso
51′
🟨 Marco Baixinho
54′
🔁 Bruno Moreira
↦ Vasco
56′
🟨 Ricardo
Felipe 🟨
62′
Héctor Herrera 🟨
64′
5–1 Jesús Corona
65′
68′
🔁 Hendrio Araujo
↦ Mateus Silva
André André 🔁
↦ Danilo Pereira
71′
6–1 V. Aboubakar
Jesús Corona
72′
Hernâni 🔁
↦ Jesús Corona
75′
Galeno 🔁
↦ M. Marega
80′
Full-time 6–1

Line-ups

Porto

4-3-3
12 José Sá G
5 Ivan Marcano D
13 Alex Telles D
28 Felipe D
21 Ricardo Pereira D
16 H. Herrera M
22 Danilo Pereira M
8 Y. Brahimi M
9 V. Aboubakar F
17 Jesús Corona M
11 M. Marega F
Bench (7)
20 André André
7 Hernâni
90 Galeno
1 Casillas
2 M. Pereira
10 Óliver Torres
23 D. Reyes

Coach: Sérgio Conceição

Pacos Ferreira

4-4-2
86 Mário Felgueiras G
2 Marco Baixinho D
22 Miguel Vieira D
3 Rui Correia D
33 Francisco Afonso D
8 André Leão M
15 Mateus Silva M
12 Pedrinho Moreira M
29 Vasco M
7 Welthon F
50 António Xavier M
Bench (7)
19 Ricardo
9 Bruno Moreira
77 Hendrio Araujo
1 Rafael Defendi
27 A. Mabil
28 Luiz Phellype
88 Gian Martins

Coach: Vasco Seabra

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Manuel Oliveira · 149 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,0 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
27,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,32 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.