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La Liga
Referee: Javier Estrada Fernandez
Valencia
U S S S S
4–0
Full-time
Sevilla
S S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Sevilla
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 34%
67%
0%
Average goals
4,3
1,7
Scored
3,0
1,2
Conceded
1,3
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+0,7
This season — La Liga · 8/8 matches
Win Ø 63%
63%
63%
Points per game
2,3
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
63%
13%
Both score Ø 38%
63%
13%
Average goals
3,9
1,6
Scored
2,6
1,1
Conceded
1,3
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,4
+0,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

52% Possession 48%
18 Shots 17
8 Shots on target 5
5 Blocked shots 6
5 Goalkeeper saves 4
7 Corners 10
0 Offside 5
15 Free kicks against 21
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Valencia 2. · Sevilla 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Barcelona 8 7 1 0 +21 22
2 Valencia 8 5 3 0 +11 18
3 Real Madrid 8 5 2 1 +8 17
4 Ath Madrid 8 4 4 0 +8 16
5 Sevilla 8 5 1 2 +5 16
6 Betis 9 5 1 3 +2 16
7 Leganes 8 4 2 2 +4 14
8 Sociedad 8 4 1 3 +2 13
9 Villarreal 8 4 1 3 +1 13
10 Celta 8 3 2 3 +5 11
11 Ath Bilbao 8 3 2 3 +1 11
12 Levante 9 2 5 2 -2 11
13 Getafe 9 2 3 4 +1 9
14 Espanol 8 2 3 3 -4 9
15 La Coruna 8 2 2 4 -7 8
16 Eibar 8 2 1 5 -14 7
17 Girona 8 1 3 4 -6 6
18 Las Palmas 8 2 0 6 -11 6
19 Alaves 9 1 0 8 -11 3
20 Malaga 8 0 1 7 -14 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Valencia Sevilla
9′
🟨 Nolito
14′
🟨 Clément Lenglet
27′
🟨 Guido Pizarro
30′
🔁 S. Corchia
↦ C. Lenglet
37′
🟨 Sébastien Corchia
1–0 Gonçalo Guedes
Rodrigo
43′
Half-time 2–0
2–0 S. Zaza
Rodrigo
51′
Simone Zaza 🟨
60′
68′
🔁 Pablo Sarabia
↦ Nolito
Santi Mina 🔁
↦ S. Zaza
70′
76′
🔁 M. Krohn-Dehli
↦ G. Pizarro
Andreas Pereira 🔁
↦ Rodrigo
82′
3–0 Santi Mina
Gonçalo Guedes
85′
Dani Parejo 🟨
88′
Toni Lato 🔁
↦ Carlos Soler
90′
4–0 Gonçalo Guedes
G. Kondogbia
92′
Full-time 4–0

Line-ups

Valencia

4-4-2
13 Neto G
4 J. Murillo D
5 Gabriel Paulista D
21 Martín Montoya D
14 José Gayá D
10 Dani Parejo M
16 G. Kondogbia M
7 Gonçalo Guedes M
18 Carlos Soler M
9 S. Zaza F
19 Rodrigo F
Bench (7)
22 Santi Mina
11 Andreas Pereira
26 Toni Lato
1 Jaume Doménech
6 N. Maksimović
24 E. Garay
31 Nacho Gil

Coach: Marcelino

Sevilla

4-1-4-1
1 Sergio Rico G
4 S. Kjær D
25 G. Mercado D
18 Sergio Escudero D
5 C. Lenglet D
16 Jesús Navas M
10 É. Banega M
22 F. Vázquez M
14 G. Pizarro M
24 Nolito F
20 L. Muriel F
Bench (7)
2 S. Corchia
17 Pablo Sarabia
7 M. Krohn-Dehli
9 W. Ben Yedder
11 J. Correa
12 J. Geis
13 David Soria

Coach: E. Berizzo

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Javier Estrada Fernandez · 77 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.