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Primeira Liga

Referee: Vasco Santos

Vitoria Setubal

U S T U T

3–1

Full-time

Maritimo

S S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Maritimo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,0

2,2

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 38%

13%

63%

Points per game

0,9

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 26%

13%

38%

Both score Ø 57%

63%

50%

Average goals

1,9

Scored

0,9

1,1

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,1

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

71% Possession 29%

14 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

18 Free kicks against 24

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 13. · Maritimo 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	8	7	1	0	+16	22
2	Sp Lisbon	8	6	2	0	+12	20
3	Benfica	8	5	2	1	+10	17
4	Maritimo	8	5	1	2	+3	16
5	Sp Braga	8	5	0	3	+6	15
6	Rio Ave	9	4	2	3	+2	14
7	Boavista	9	4	1	4	+2	13
8	Belenenses	8	4	1	3	-1	13
9	Feirense	9	3	2	4	-2	11
10	Guimaraes	8	3	1	4	-7	10
11	Pacos Ferreira	8	2	3	3	-2	9
12	Chaves	8	2	2	4	-2	8
13	Vitoria Setubal	8	1	4	3	-1	7
14	Portimonense	8	2	1	5	-6	7
15	Tondela	8	1	3	4	-2	6
16	Aves	8	1	3	4	-5	6
17	Moreirense	8	1	3	4	-8	6
18	Estoril	9	2	0	7	-15	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Maritimo	5	4	1	0	+4	13
2	Porto	4	4	0	0	+13	12
3	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+10	12
4	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+4	10
5	Rio Ave	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Belenenses	4	3	1	0	+3	10
7	Sp Braga	4	3	0	1	+7	9
8	Boavista	4	3	0	1	+2	9
9	Guimaraes	4	3	0	1	-2	9
10	Pacos Ferreira	4	2	2	0	+2	8
11	Portimonense	4	2	1	1	+1	7
12	Feirense	5	2	1	2	-2	7
13	Vitoria Setubal	4	1	3	0	+2	6
14	Chaves	4	1	1	2	+0	4
15	Aves	4	1	1	2	-3	4
16	Estoril	4	1	0	3	-4	3
17	Moreirense	3	0	2	1	-3	2
18	Tondela	4	0	1	3	-3	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	3	1	0	+8	10
2	Porto	4	3	1	0	+3	10
3	Sp Braga	4	2	0	2	-1	6
4	Tondela	4	1	2	1	+1	5
5	Benfica	4	1	2	1	+0	5
6	Boavista	5	1	1	3	+0	4
7	Feirense	4	1	1	2	+0	4
8	Rio Ave	4	1	1	2	-1	4
9	Chaves	4	1	1	2	-2	4
10	Moreirense	5	1	1	3	-5	4
11	Maritimo	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	Belenenses	4	1	0	3	-4	3
13	Estoril	5	1	0	4	-11	3
14	Aves	4	0	2	2	-2	2
15	Vitoria Setubal	4	0	1	3	-3	1
16	Pacos Ferreira	4	0	1	3	-4	1
17	Guimaraes	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Portimonense	4	0	0	4	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.