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Premier League

Referee: A Marriner

Chelsea

S U S S S

0–1

Full-time

Arsenal

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,5

This season — Premier League · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 47%

51%

43%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

43%

54%

Both score Ø 43%

40%

46%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

1,6

1,4

Conceded

0,9

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

67% Possession 33%

19 Shots 5

5 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 1

4 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 6

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 4. · Arsenal 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	35	25	5	5	+46	80
2	Man United	35	20	10	5	+30	70
3	Leicester	36	20	6	10	+21	66
4	Chelsea	35	18	10	7	+23	64
5	West Ham	35	17	7	11	+10	58
6	Liverpool	34	16	9	9	+18	57
7	Tottenham	35	16	8	11	+20	56
8	Everton	34	16	7	11	+4	55
9	Arsenal	35	15	7	13	+11	52
10	Leeds	35	15	5	15	+0	50
11	Aston Villa	34	14	6	14	+8	48
12	Wolves	35	12	9	14	-12	45
13	Crystal Palace	35	11	8	16	-22	41
14	Southampton	35	11	7	17	-18	40
15	Burnley	35	10	9	16	-14	39
16	Newcastle	35	10	9	16	-18	39
17	Brighton	35	8	13	14	-5	37
18	Fulham	35	5	12	18	-22	27
19	West Brom	35	5	11	19	-36	26
20	Sheffield United	35	5	2	28	-44	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	18	12	2	4	+21	38
2	West Ham	18	9	4	5	+7	31
3	Tottenham	17	9	3	5	+14	30
4	Chelsea	17	8	6	3	+13	30
5	Man United	17	9	3	5	+12	30
6	Liverpool	18	9	3	6	+7	30
7	Leicester	18	9	1	8	+6	28
8	Leeds	18	7	5	6	+5	26
9	Arsenal	18	7	4	7	+1	25
10	Wolves	18	7	4	7	-3	25
11	Southampton	17	7	3	7	+3	24
12	Aston Villa	17	6	3	8	+1	21
13	Newcastle	17	5	5	7	-7	20
14	Crystal Palace	17	5	5	7	-11	20
15	Everton	17	5	4	8	-4	19
16	Burnley	17	4	6	7	-6	18
17	Brighton	17	3	8	6	-1	17
18	West Brom	17	3	6	8	-21	15
19	Sheffield United	18	4	1	13	-16	13
20	Fulham	18	2	4	12	-17	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	13	3	1	+25	42
2	Man United	18	11	7	0	+18	40
3	Leicester	18	11	5	2	+15	38
4	Everton	17	11	3	3	+8	36
5	Chelsea	18	10	4	4	+10	34
6	Liverpool	16	7	6	3	+11	27
7	Arsenal	17	8	3	6	+10	27
8	Aston Villa	17	8	3	6	+7	27
9	West Ham	17	8	3	6	+3	27
10	Tottenham	18	7	5	6	+6	26
11	Leeds	17	8	0	9	-5	24
12	Burnley	18	6	3	9	-8	21
13	Crystal Palace	18	6	3	9	-11	21
14	Brighton	18	5	5	8	-4	20
15	Wolves	17	5	5	7	-9	20
16	Newcastle	18	5	4	9	-11	19
17	Fulham	17	3	8	6	-5	17
18	Southampton	18	4	4	10	-21	16
19	West Brom	18	2	5	11	-15	11
20	Sheffield United	17	1	1	15	-28	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.