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2. Bundesliga

Referee: M P Eckermann

Holstein Kiel

U U S S U

1–2

Full-time

Greuther Furth

U U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Holstein Kiel Greuther Furth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 27%

32%

21%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

42%

74%

Both score Ø 58%

58%

Average goals

2,5

3,8

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,3

2,4

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,72 xG 1,24

69% Possession 31%

13 Shots 5

3 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 2

3 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 17

4 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Holstein Kiel 10. · Greuther Furth 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	19	12	3	4	+12	+5.7	39
2	Darmstadt	19	10	7	2	+14	+6.8	37
3	Paderborn	19	11	3	5	+9	+10.5	36
4	Elversberg	19	10	5	4	+15	-2.8	35
5	Hannover	20	10	5	5	+8	+7.1	35
6	Kaiserslautern	19	9	4	6	+10	+0.6	31
7	Hertha	19	8	6	5	+5	-2.2	30
8	Nurnberg	20	7	5	8	-5	+1.6	26
9	Karlsruhe	19	7	5	7	-6	-13.9	26
10	Holstein Kiel	19	6	6	7	+0	-6.7	24
11	Bochum	19	6	5	8	+1	+3.5	23
12	Preußen Münster	20	5	6	9	-7	-5.0	21
13	Braunschweig	19	6	3	10	-12	+0.7	21
14	Bielefeld	19	5	5	9	+2	+0.1	20
15	Magdeburg	20	6	2	12	-7	+5.1	20
16	Fortuna Dusseldorf	19	6	2	11	-12	-4.8	20
17	Dresden	19	5	4	10	-7	+0.8	19
18	Greuther Furth	19	4	4	11	-20	-7.2	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	10	7	3	0	+12	+8.5	24
2	Kaiserslautern	10	7	1	2	+12	+4.3	22
3	Schalke 04	9	7	1	1	+6	+3.2	22
4	Elversberg	9	5	4	0	+10	-0.4	19
5	Paderborn	10	6	1	3	+3	+6.3	19
6	Nurnberg	11	5	4	2	+2	+1.7	19
7	Hannover	9	5	1	3	+2	+5.6	16
8	Karlsruhe	9	5	1	3	+0	-6.2	16
9	Hertha	10	4	3	3	-1	+0.3	15
10	Bielefeld	10	4	2	4	+7	+6.4	14
11	Bochum	9	4	2	3	+3	+6.6	14
12	Holstein Kiel	9	4	2	3	+3	-0.6	14
13	Preußen Münster	10	3	5	2	+1	+0.4	14
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	10	3	2	5	-6	-1.5	11
15	Braunschweig	10	3	2	5	-8	+1.1	11
16	Greuther Furth	9	2	3	4	-9	-4.0	9
17	Dresden	9	2	2	5	-2	+4.6	8
18	Magdeburg	10	2	1	7	-6	+3.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hannover	11	5	4	2	+6	+1.6	19
2	Paderborn	9	5	2	2	+6	+4.1	17
3	Schalke 04	10	5	2	3	+6	+2.5	17
4	Elversberg	10	5	1	4	+5	-2.3	16
5	Hertha	9	4	3	2	+6	-2.5	15
6	Darmstadt	9	3	4	2	+2	-1.7	13
7	Magdeburg	10	4	1	5	-1	+2.1	13
8	Dresden	10	3	2	5	-5	-3.8	11
9	Holstein Kiel	10	2	4	4	-3	-6.1	10
10	Braunschweig	9	3	1	5	-4	-0.4	10
11	Karlsruhe	10	2	4	4	-6	-7.8	10
12	Bochum	10	2	3	5	-2	-3.1	9
13	Kaiserslautern	9	2	3	4	-2	-3.6	9
14	Fortuna Dusseldorf	9	3	0	6	-6	-3.2	9
15	Nurnberg	9	2	1	6	-7	-0.1	7
16	Preußen Münster	10	2	1	7	-8	-5.4	7
17	Greuther Furth	10	2	1	7	-11	-3.2	7
18	Bielefeld	9	1	3	5	-5	-6.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.