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2. Bundesliga

Referee: F Willenborg

Paderborn

T S T S U

5–2

Full-time

Hertha

U U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Paderborn Hertha

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 48%

55%

41%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

59%

45%

Both score Ø 48%

59%

36%

Average goals

2,6

2,4

Scored

1,5

1,4

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

3,26 xG 1,25

55% Possession 45%

17 Shots 8

9 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 7

3 Offside 4

9 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Paderborn 5. · Hertha 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Schalke 04	23	14	4	5	+13	+8.9	46
2	Darmstadt	23	12	9	2	+19	+7.3	45
3	Elversberg	23	13	5	5	+17	+2.0	44
4	Hannover	22	12	5	5	+11	+11.2	41
5	Paderborn	22	12	4	6	+9	+8.7	40
6	Hertha	22	9	7	6	+7	-4.3	34
7	Kaiserslautern	22	10	4	8	+5	-0.9	34
8	Nurnberg	23	8	6	9	-2	+1.5	30
9	Karlsruhe	23	8	6	9	-9	-15.0	30
10	Bochum	23	7	8	8	+3	+5.9	29
11	Bielefeld	23	7	6	10	+4	+0.7	27
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	23	7	4	12	-12	-2.7	25
13	Braunschweig	23	7	4	12	-14	-1.2	25
14	Holstein Kiel	23	6	6	11	-6	-12.9	24
15	Preußen Münster	22	5	8	9	-7	-5.8	23
16	Magdeburg	23	7	2	14	-10	+3.9	23
17	Greuther Furth	23	6	4	13	-20	-7.1	22
18	Dresden	22	5	6	11	-8	-0.0	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	12	9	3	0	+17	+8.7	30
2	Schalke 04	11	8	2	1	+8	+4.8	26
3	Kaiserslautern	12	8	1	3	+11	+2.7	25
4	Elversberg	11	6	4	1	+9	+1.4	22
5	Nurnberg	12	6	4	2	+6	+1.9	22
6	Paderborn	11	7	1	3	+4	+6.3	22
7	Karlsruhe	11	6	2	3	+2	-6.6	20
8	Bochum	12	5	4	3	+5	+9.0	19
9	Hannover	10	6	1	3	+4	+8.5	19
10	Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	+8	+7.5	17
11	Hertha	12	4	4	4	-2	-1.8	16
12	Preußen Münster	11	3	6	2	+1	+0.4	15
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	4	3	5	-5	-0.7	15
14	Braunschweig	12	4	3	5	-7	+2.2	15
15	Holstein Kiel	11	4	2	5	+1	-2.9	14
16	Greuther Furth	11	3	3	5	-9	-3.4	12
17	Dresden	11	2	3	6	-3	+3.8	9
18	Magdeburg	11	2	1	8	-8	+3.5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Elversberg	12	7	1	4	+8	+0.5	22
2	Hannover	12	6	4	2	+7	+2.8	22
3	Schalke 04	12	6	2	4	+5	+4.0	20
4	Hertha	10	5	3	2	+9	-2.5	18
5	Paderborn	11	5	3	3	+5	+2.3	18
6	Magdeburg	12	5	1	6	-2	+0.4	16
7	Darmstadt	11	3	6	2	+2	-1.4	15
8	Dresden	11	3	3	5	-5	-3.8	12
9	Bochum	11	2	4	5	-2	-3.1	10
10	Bielefeld	12	2	4	6	-4	-6.8	10
11	Holstein Kiel	12	2	4	6	-7	-10.0	10
12	Braunschweig	11	3	1	7	-7	-3.4	10
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	11	3	1	7	-7	-2.0	10
14	Greuther Furth	12	3	1	8	-11	-3.7	10
15	Karlsruhe	12	2	4	6	-11	-8.4	10
16	Kaiserslautern	10	2	3	5	-6	-3.6	9
17	Preußen Münster	11	2	2	7	-8	-6.2	8
18	Nurnberg	11	2	2	7	-8	-0.4	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.