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Serie B
Referee: M Caputi
Empoli
T S S T U
3–1
Full-time
Padova
T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Empoli Padova
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/3 matches
Win Ø 17%
33%
0%
Points per game
1,2
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 58%
83%
33%
Average goals
2,7
3,0
Scored
1,3
0,3
Conceded
1,3
2,7
Goal diff per game
+0,0
-2,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

51% Possession 49%
15 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 2
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 4
1 Offside 1
19 Free kicks against 19
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Empoli Padova
1–0 S. Shpendi ⚽
M. Curto
21′
25′
⚽ M. Bortolussi 1–1
K. Varas
B. Popov 🔁
↦ S. Shpendi
28′
2–1 B. Popov ⚽
41′
Half-time 2–1
Gerard Yepes 🟨
48′
49′
🟨 Alessandro Capelli
54′
🟨 Daniele Baselli
57′
🟨 Antonio Barreca
60′
🟥 Pietro Fusi
VAR: Red card cancelled
65′
🔁 P. Ghiglione
↦ L. Di Maggio
65′
🔁 M. Perrotta
↦ F. Belli
3–1 B. Popov ⚽
S. Elia
66′
74′
🟨 Paolo Ghiglione
74′
🔁 J. Harder
↦ A. Capelli
74′
🔁 C. Buonaiuto
↦ D. Baselli
J. Ceesay 🔁
↦ R. Ilie
79′
81′
🔁 K. Lasagna
↦ P. Fusi
T. Ebuehi 🔁
↦ S. Elia
88′
B. Moruzzi 🔁
↦ F. Carboni
88′
I. Kaczmarski 🔁
↦ G. Yepes
88′
Luca Belardinelli 🟨
93′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Empoli

3-1-4-2
21 A. Fulignati G
2 M. Curto D
20 M. Lovato D
5 N. Obaretin D
8 L. Belardinelli M
7 S. Elia M
25 L. Ignacchiti M
14 G. Yepes M
79 F. Carboni M
11 S. Shpendi F
10 R. Ilie F
Bench (12)
22 F. Versari
15 J. Ceesay
24 T. Ebuehi
28 G. Indragoli
31 J. Moray
27 B. Moruzzi
38 A. Baralla
53 D. Busiello
37 I. Kaczmarski
96 A. Orlandi
41 A. Asmussen
77 B. Popov

Coach: Fabio Caserta

Padova

3-4-2-1
14 M. Fortin G
4 F. Belli D
55 L. Villa D
72 C. Faedo D
17 A. Capelli M
8 P. Fusi M
33 D. Baselli M
3 A. Barreca M
7 K. Varas F
23 L. Di Maggio F
20 M. Bortolussi F
Bench (12)
1 L. Mouquet
22 A. Sorrentino
30 G. Favale
18 P. Ghiglione
58 C. Pastina
5 M. Perrotta
32 F. Sgarbi
6 L. Crisetig
44 J. Harder
77 F. Tumiatti
92 C. Buonaiuto
15 K. Lasagna

Coach: Matteo Andreoletti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,86
🔒
U
3,42
🔒
B
3,90
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
2,03
🔒
U2,5
1,70
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Caputi · 13 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
29,1 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.