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Serie B

Referee: M Caputi

Modena

S T T U S

2–1

Full-time

Mantova

U T S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Modena Mantova

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

1,5

1,8

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie B · 30/31 matches

Win Ø 36%

43%

29%

Points per game

1,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

47%

52%

Both score Ø 49%

43%

55%

Average goals

2,1

2,6

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,65 xG 0,84

37% Possession 63%

9 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 20

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Modena 6. · Mantova 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	32	20	8	4	+37	+29.5	68
2	Monza	32	19	8	5	+24	+14.0	65
3	Frosinone	31	17	11	3	+28	+9.1	62
4	Palermo	32	17	10	5	+25	+10.3	61
5	Catanzaro	31	14	10	7	+11	+1.5	52
6	Modena	30	13	8	9	+16	+9.6	47
7	Juve Stabia	32	10	15	7	+0	+1.9	45
8	Cesena	32	12	7	13	-6	+3.9	43
9	Avellino	31	10	9	12	-13	-14.9	39
10	Sudtirol	31	8	14	9	+1	-4.7	38
11	Carrarese	31	8	12	11	-4	-7.1	36
12	Mantova	31	9	7	15	-11	+0.3	34
13	Padova	32	8	10	14	-11	-9.7	34
14	Empoli	31	7	12	12	-6	+1.1	33
15	Sampdoria	31	7	10	14	-13	-3.1	31
16	Bari	31	7	10	14	-17	-18.6	31
17	Virtus Entella	31	7	10	14	-17	-10.2	31
18	Spezia	32	7	9	16	-15	-3.9	30
19	Reggiana	31	7	9	15	-16	-7.2	30
20	Pescara	31	6	11	14	-13	-1.9	29

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Venezia	16	14	0	2	+26	+16.8	42
2	Monza	16	12	3	1	+19	+10.8	39
3	Palermo	16	11	4	1	+21	+8.1	37
4	Frosinone	15	9	4	2	+17	+6.8	31
5	Catanzaro	15	8	6	1	+10	+2.7	30
6	Juve Stabia	16	7	8	1	+9	+5.8	29
7	Modena	16	7	4	5	+10	+1.5	25
8	Avellino	16	7	4	5	-2	-6.2	25
9	Carrarese	16	6	6	4	+7	+3.1	24
10	Virtus Entella	15	6	6	3	+4	-2.8	24
11	Mantova	16	7	3	6	-1	+3.6	24
12	Sampdoria	15	6	5	4	+2	+2.3	23
13	Cesena	16	6	4	6	+0	+5.5	22
14	Pescara	16	5	5	6	+3	-0.8	20
15	Sudtirol	15	5	5	5	+3	-4.5	20
16	Bari	15	5	5	5	+0	-7.9	20
17	Empoli	16	3	10	3	+4	+5.4	19
18	Reggiana	15	4	6	5	-3	-2.6	18
19	Spezia	16	4	5	7	-6	-0.6	17
20	Padova	16	3	7	6	-4	-4.5	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Frosinone	16	8	7	1	+11	+2.3	31
2	Venezia	16	6	8	2	+11	+12.7	26
3	Monza	16	7	5	4	+5	+3.2	26
4	Palermo	16	6	6	4	+4	+2.2	24
5	Modena	14	6	4	4	+6	+8.1	22
6	Catanzaro	16	6	4	6	+1	-1.2	22
7	Cesena	16	6	3	7	-6	-1.6	21
8	Sudtirol	16	3	9	4	-2	-0.2	18
9	Padova	16	5	3	8	-7	-5.2	18
10	Juve Stabia	16	3	7	6	-9	-3.9	16
11	Empoli	15	4	2	9	-10	-4.3	14
12	Avellino	15	3	5	7	-11	-8.6	14
13	Spezia	16	3	4	9	-9	-3.3	13
14	Carrarese	15	2	6	7	-11	-10.2	12
15	Reggiana	16	3	3	10	-13	-4.6	12
16	Bari	16	2	5	9	-17	-10.8	11
17	Mantova	15	2	4	9	-10	-3.3	10
18	Pescara	15	1	6	8	-16	-1.1	9
19	Sampdoria	16	1	5	10	-15	-5.3	8
20	Virtus Entella	16	1	4	11	-21	-7.5	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.