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Ekstraklasa
Referee: P Malec
Jagiellonia
U U S T S
3–1
Full-time
Warta Poznan
S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Jagiellonia Warta Poznan
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 50%
83%
17%
Average goals
3,2
1,5
Scored
1,8
1,0
Conceded
1,3
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,5
This season — Ekstraklasa · 29/29 matches
Win Ø 35%
28%
41%
Points per game
1,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
48%
28%
Both score Ø 52%
69%
34%
Average goals
2,8
2,1
Scored
1,4
1,2
Conceded
1,3
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,1
+0,3
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

47% Possession 53%
9 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
1 Corners 4
0 Offside 1
16 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Jagiellonia 9. · Warta Poznan 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Rakow 30 22 5 3 +41 71
2 Legia 30 17 9 4 +16 60
3 Pogon Szczecin 29 14 8 7 +6 50
4 Lech Poznan 29 13 10 6 +13 49
5 Warta Poznan 29 12 8 9 +8 44
6 Piast Gliwice 29 12 6 11 +4 42
7 Cracovia 29 11 8 10 +7 41
8 Widzew Lodz 29 10 8 11 -2 38
9 Jagiellonia 29 8 12 9 +3 36
10 Wisla Plock 30 10 6 14 -3 36
11 Gornik Zabrze 29 9 8 12 -3 35
12 Stal Mielec 29 9 8 12 -4 35
13 Radomiak Radom 29 9 8 12 -6 35
14 Korona Kielce 29 9 8 12 -8 35
15 Zaglebie 29 8 8 13 -16 32
16 Slask Wroclaw 29 7 10 12 -14 31
17 Lechia Gdansk 30 7 5 18 -24 26
18 Legnica 29 4 9 16 -18 21

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Jagiellonia Warta Poznan
1–0 Marc Gual
B. Wdowik
9′
1–1 D. Szymonowicz
own goal
17′
Nené 🟨
22′
28′
🟨 Jakub Kiełb
2–1 Nené
Marc Gual
31′
Half-time 2–1
46′
🔁 J. Grzesik
↦ J. Kiełb
60′
🟨 Niilo Mäenpää
C. Mena 🔁
↦ M. Sáček
70′
70′
🔁 K. Kościelny
↦ W. Pleśnierowicz
70′
🔁 M. Kopczyński
↦ D. Stavrópoulos
70′
🔁 Miguel Luís
↦ M. Żurawski
78′
🔁 M. Kupczak
↦ N. Mäenpää
81′
S. Savić 2–2
K. Szmyt
T. Kupisz 🔁
↦ Marc Gual
82′
Aurelien Nguiamba 🟨
88′
P. Olszewski 🔁
↦ T. Přikryl
94′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Jagiellonia

5-3-2
1 Z. Alomerović G
14 T. Přikryl D
32 M. Matysik D
72 M. Skrzypczak D
2 M. Pazdan D
27 B. Wdowik D
16 M. Sáček M
39 A. Nguiamba M
8 Nené M
11 Jesús Imaz F
28 Marc Gual F
Bench (9)
10 C. Mena
18 T. Kupisz
19 P. Olszewski
36 J. Lewicki
3 D. Stojinović
34 M. Bortniczuk
6 T. Romanczuk
9 B. Bida
50 S. Abramowicz

Coach: A. Siemieniec

Warta Poznan

5-4-1
1 A. Lis G
3 J. Kiełb D
54 D. Stavrópoulos D
44 D. Szymonowicz D
34 W. Pleśnierowicz D
22 K. Matuszewski D
24 K. Szmyt M
6 M. Żurawski M
8 N. Mäenpää M
77 S. Savić M
99 A. Zreľák F
Bench (8)
2 J. Grzesik
14 K. Kościelny
15 M. Kopczyński
16 Miguel Luís
21 M. Kupczak
33 J. Grobelny
94 E. Destan
30 M. Szczepański

Coach: D. Szulczek

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
U
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

P Malec · 51 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,8 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.