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Ekstraklasa
Referee: D Sylwestrzak
Legia
T U S S T
0–1
Full-time
Jagiellonia
T S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Legia Jagiellonia
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
3,0
1,8
Scored
1,8
0,7
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ekstraklasa · 27/27 matches
Win Ø 50%
44%
56%
Points per game
1,6
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 54%
56%
52%
Both score Ø 62%
67%
56%
Average goals
3,2
3,0
Scored
1,9
1,8
Conceded
1,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,52 xG 0,73
60% Possession 40%
20 Shots 12
3 Shots on target 2
8 Blocked shots 5
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 3
1 Offside 2
15 Free kicks against 15
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Legia 5. · Jagiellonia 3.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Rakow 28 17 8 3 +24 +11.8 59
2 Lech Poznan 28 18 2 8 +27 +9.1 56
3 Jagiellonia 27 15 7 5 +16 +3.7 52
4 Pogon Szczecin 28 14 5 9 +16 +12.3 47
5 Legia 27 12 8 7 +14 +9.6 44
6 Cracovia 28 11 9 8 +5 -4.3 42
7 Gornik Zabrze 28 12 4 12 +4 +5.1 40
8 Motor Lublin 28 11 7 10 -7 +0.1 40
9 GKS Katowice 28 11 6 11 +1 +1.7 39
10 Piast Gliwice 28 9 10 9 -1 -3.7 37
11 Widzew Lodz 28 10 6 12 -8 -5.9 36
12 Korona Kielce 28 9 9 10 -10 +0.6 36
13 Radomiak Radom 28 10 4 14 -5 -0.7 34
14 Zaglebie 28 8 5 15 -17 -7.1 29
15 Puszcza 28 6 8 14 -15 -15.2 26
16 Slask Wroclaw 28 5 10 13 -10 -0.8 25
17 Stal Mielec 27 6 6 15 -15 +0.3 24
18 Lechia Gdansk 27 6 6 15 -19 -16.5 24

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Legia Jagiellonia
5′
🔁 Tomás Silva
↦ L. Flach
Radovan Pankov 🟨
20′
21′
🟨 Tomás Silva
41′
D. Churlinov 0–1
Half-time 0–1
56′
🟨 Norbert Wojtuszek
P. Kun 🔁
↦ R. Pankov
65′
Claude Gonçalves 🔁
↦ J. Elitim
65′
68′
🔁 J. Kubicki
↦ Tomás Silva
V. Bichakhchyan 🔁
↦ K. Chodyna
76′
W. Urbański 🔁
↦ Luquinhas
76′
81′
🔁 L. Diaby-Fadiga
↦ Jesús Imaz
81′
🔁 D. Stojinović
↦ N. Wojtuszek
81′
🔁 Miki Villar
↦ D. Churlinov
91′
🟨 Dušan Stojinović
93′
🟨 Dušan Stojinović
93′
🟥 Dušan Stojinović
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Legia

4-1-4-1
1 K. Tobiasz G
12 R. Pankov D
24 J. Ziółkowski D
3 S. Kapuadi D
19 Rúben Vinagre D
6 M. Oyedele M
11 K. Chodyna M
22 J. Elitim M
25 R. Morishita M
82 Luquinhas M
17 I. Shkurin F
Bench (9)
23 P. Kun
5 Claude Gonçalves
21 V. Bichakhchyan
53 W. Urbański
42 Sergio Barcia
71 M. Szczepaniak
8 R. Augustyniak
7 T. Pekhart
77 V. Kovačević

Coach: Gonçalo Feio

Jagiellonia

4-4-2
50 S. Abramowicz G
15 N. Wojtuszek D
72 M. Skrzypczak D
23 E. Ebosse D
44 João Moutinho D
21 D. Churlinov M
6 T. Romanczuk M
31 L. Flach M
99 K. Normann Hansen M
10 Afimico Pululu F
11 Jesús Imaz F
Bench (9)
82 Tomás Silva
14 J. Kubicki
9 L. Diaby-Fadiga
3 D. Stojinović
20 Miki Villar
7 Edi Semedo
80 O. Pietuszewski
1 M. Stryjek
5 C. Polak

Coach: A. Siemieniec

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U
B ✓
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

D Sylwestrzak · 105 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,0 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
25,2 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.