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Ekstraklasa

Referee: L Kuźma

Lechia Gdansk

T S T S S

3–2

Full-time

Korona Kielce

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lechia Gdansk Korona Kielce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 32%

29%

35%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

52%

39%

Both score Ø 58%

61%

55%

Average goals

2,8

2,4

Scored

1,2

1,1

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,78 xG 1,52

45% Possession 55%

12 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lechia Gdansk 15. · Korona Kielce 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	32	19	8	5	+27	+10.3	65
2	Lech Poznan	31	20	3	8	+35	+11.3	63
3	Jagiellonia	32	17	8	7	+14	+3.5	59
4	Pogon Szczecin	31	16	5	10	+16	+15.8	53
5	Legia	30	14	8	8	+16	+15.4	50
6	Gornik Zabrze	32	13	7	12	+6	+5.3	46
7	Cracovia	31	12	9	10	+3	-5.7	45
8	Korona Kielce	31	11	10	10	-7	+0.6	43
9	Motor Lublin	31	12	7	12	-10	-2.3	43
10	GKS Katowice	31	12	6	13	+0	-2.3	42
11	Piast Gliwice	32	10	12	10	+0	-1.8	42
12	Radomiak Radom	32	11	7	14	-3	+0.1	40
13	Widzew Lodz	31	10	7	14	-10	-7.0	37
14	Zaglebie	32	10	6	16	-16	-6.8	36
15	Lechia Gdansk	31	9	6	16	-15	-17.5	33
16	Slask Wroclaw	32	6	10	16	-15	-0.1	28
17	Puszcza	31	6	9	16	-23	-17.6	27
18	Stal Mielec	31	6	8	17	-18	-1.0	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	16	14	0	2	+33	+11.4	42
2	Pogon Szczecin	15	12	1	2	+19	+15.5	37
3	Jagiellonia	16	9	5	2	+14	+4.7	32
4	Legia	15	9	3	3	+15	+11.6	30
5	Rakow	16	9	3	4	+12	+6.5	30
6	Gornik Zabrze	16	8	3	5	+9	+5.8	27
7	Korona Kielce	16	8	2	6	+1	+5.8	26
8	GKS Katowice	15	7	4	4	+6	-4.0	25
9	Radomiak Radom	16	6	5	5	+6	+4.6	23
10	Widzew Lodz	15	7	2	6	-1	-0.4	23
11	Motor Lublin	16	6	4	6	-1	-1.9	22
12	Zaglebie	16	6	3	7	-4	-4.0	21
13	Piast Gliwice	16	4	8	4	-2	-0.6	20
14	Stal Mielec	16	5	5	6	-3	+3.9	20
15	Lechia Gdansk	15	6	2	7	-5	-7.4	20
16	Slask Wroclaw	16	4	6	6	-1	-0.7	18
17	Cracovia	16	4	6	6	-2	-1.3	18
18	Puszcza	15	4	6	5	-2	-3.1	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	16	10	5	1	+15	+3.8	35
2	Cracovia	15	8	3	4	+5	-4.5	27
3	Jagiellonia	16	8	3	5	+0	-1.3	27
4	Piast Gliwice	16	6	4	6	+2	-1.2	22
5	Lech Poznan	15	6	3	6	+2	-0.1	21
6	Motor Lublin	15	6	3	6	-9	-0.4	21
7	Legia	15	5	5	5	+1	+3.7	20
8	Gornik Zabrze	16	5	4	7	-3	-0.5	19
9	GKS Katowice	16	5	2	9	-6	+1.7	17
10	Korona Kielce	15	3	8	4	-8	-5.1	17
11	Radomiak Radom	16	5	2	9	-9	-4.5	17
12	Pogon Szczecin	16	4	4	8	-3	+0.3	16
13	Zaglebie	16	4	3	9	-12	-2.8	15
14	Widzew Lodz	16	3	5	8	-9	-6.6	14
15	Lechia Gdansk	16	3	4	9	-10	-10.1	13
16	Slask Wroclaw	16	2	4	10	-14	+0.6	10
17	Puszcza	16	2	3	11	-21	-14.5	9
18	Stal Mielec	15	1	3	11	-15	-4.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.