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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernández

Barcelona

S S U S T

4–3

Full-time

Real Madrid

T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

4,8

2,7

Scored

2,7

1,5

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 71%

74%

68%

Points per game

2,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

71%

59%

Both score Ø 59%

62%

56%

Average goals

3,6

3,0

Scored

2,7

2,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 4–2

4,26 xG 2,74

62% Possession 38%

23 Shots 9

9 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 2

1 Offside 5

17 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 1. · Real Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	34	25	4	5	+58	+44.7	79
2	Real Madrid	34	23	6	5	+36	+27.8	75
3	Ath Madrid	35	20	10	5	+33	+25.2	70
4	Ath Bilbao	34	16	13	5	+24	+15.5	61
5	Villarreal	35	17	10	8	+14	+20.2	61
6	Betis	34	16	9	9	+10	+10.6	57
7	Celta	35	14	7	14	+1	+10.2	49
8	Vallecano	35	12	11	12	-5	-3.7	47
9	Mallorca	35	13	8	14	-7	-3.8	47
10	Valencia	35	11	12	12	-8	-6.3	45
11	Osasuna	34	10	14	10	-8	-9.7	44
12	Sociedad	35	12	7	16	-9	+0.6	43
13	Getafe	35	10	9	16	-3	-7.6	39
14	Espanol	35	10	9	16	-9	-21.9	39
15	Sevilla	35	9	11	15	-10	-4.8	38
16	Girona	35	10	8	17	-12	-5.3	38
17	Alaves	34	8	11	15	-11	-4.0	35
18	Leganes	35	7	13	15	-18	-26.4	34
19	Las Palmas	35	8	8	19	-17	-29.3	32
20	Valladolid	35	4	4	27	-59	-31.9	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	18	13	4	1	+24	+23.3	43
2	Real Madrid	17	14	1	2	+23	+23.8	43
3	Barcelona	17	13	1	3	+32	+33.1	40
4	Ath Bilbao	17	10	6	1	+21	+13.9	36
5	Celta	18	11	3	4	+12	+7.5	36
6	Betis	17	9	5	3	+11	+16.0	32
7	Valencia	18	9	4	5	+7	+5.7	31
8	Osasuna	17	8	6	3	+6	+3.0	30
9	Villarreal	17	7	7	3	+11	+11.7	28
10	Espanol	17	7	6	4	+3	-5.7	27
11	Mallorca	18	7	6	5	+0	-1.1	27
12	Girona	18	7	3	8	+1	+5.0	24
13	Sociedad	17	7	3	7	+0	+5.2	24
14	Vallecano	17	6	6	5	-2	+5.1	24
15	Leganes	18	6	4	8	-7	-9.8	22
16	Sevilla	17	5	6	6	-5	+0.9	21
17	Alaves	17	5	5	7	-4	+0.2	20
18	Getafe	17	4	7	6	-1	+3.3	19
19	Las Palmas	18	4	5	9	-7	-7.2	17
20	Valladolid	17	3	4	10	-19	-10.4	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	17	12	3	2	+26	+11.5	39
2	Villarreal	18	10	3	5	+3	+8.5	33
3	Real Madrid	17	9	5	3	+13	+4.0	32
4	Ath Madrid	17	7	6	4	+9	+1.9	27
5	Ath Bilbao	17	6	7	4	+3	+1.6	25
6	Betis	17	7	4	6	-1	-5.4	25
7	Vallecano	18	6	5	7	-3	-8.8	23
8	Getafe	18	6	2	10	-2	-10.9	20
9	Mallorca	17	6	2	9	-7	-2.7	20
10	Sociedad	18	5	4	9	-9	-4.6	19
11	Sevilla	18	4	5	9	-5	-5.7	17
12	Alaves	17	3	6	8	-7	-4.2	15
13	Las Palmas	17	4	3	10	-10	-22.1	15
14	Girona	17	3	5	9	-13	-10.3	14
15	Osasuna	17	2	8	7	-14	-12.6	14
16	Valencia	17	2	8	7	-15	-12.0	14
17	Celta	17	3	4	10	-11	+2.8	13
18	Leganes	17	1	9	7	-11	-16.5	12
19	Espanol	18	3	3	12	-12	-16.2	12
20	Valladolid	18	1	0	17	-40	-21.6	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.