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Super League
Referee: F San
Luzern
T T S T U
2–2
Full-time
St. Gallen
T S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luzern St. Gallen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
17%
50%
Points per game
0,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,8
3,0
Scored
1,5
1,7
Conceded
2,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Super League · 21/20 matches
Win Ø 42%
24%
60%
Points per game
1,0
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 76%
76%
75%
Both score Ø 71%
76%
65%
Average goals
3,8
3,3
Scored
1,8
2,0
Conceded
2,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,1
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,49 xG 2,25
63% Possession 37%
11 Shots 10
3 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
6 Corners 2
0 Offside 2
17 Free kicks against 16
1 Yellow cards 6
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Luzern 10. · St. Gallen 3.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Thun 21 15 1 5 +21 +1.3 46
2 Lugano 22 12 4 6 +11 +1.2 40
3 St. Gallen 20 12 1 7 +14 +3.1 37
4 Basel 21 10 6 5 +9 +11.2 36
5 Sion 22 8 9 5 +6 +4.2 33
6 Young Boys 21 8 5 8 -5 -1.1 29
7 Lausanne 22 7 7 8 +2 +5.5 28
8 Servette 22 6 7 9 -5 +3.3 25
9 Zurich 21 7 4 10 -8 +3.4 25
10 Luzern 21 5 7 9 -3 -3.8 22
11 Grasshoppers 22 4 7 11 -11 -13.9 19
12 Winterthur 21 3 4 14 -31 -14.1 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Luzern St. Gallen
-5′
🟨 Lukas Watkowiak
26′
🟨 Carlo Boukhalfa
32′
A. Vogt 0–1
L. Gortler
Bung Meng Freimann 🟨
41′
42′
🟨 Aliou Balde
Half-time 0–1
46′
🟨 Hugo Vandermersch
O. Kabwit 🔁
↦ J. Von Moos
46′
49′
🟨 Tom Gaal
L. M. Silva Ferreira 🔁
↦ L. Winkler
59′
68′
A. Vogt 0–2
C. Witzig
71′
🔁 D. Besio
↦ A. Balde
71′
🔁 A. Verinac
↦ A. Vogt
73′
ℹ️ Antonio Verinac
VAR: Card upgrade
74′
🟥 Antonio Verinac
A. Bajrami 🔁
↦ S. Knezevic
76′
S. Karweina 🔁
↦ L. Villiger
76′
A. Vasovic 🔁
↦ T. Abe
78′
81′
🔁 A. Vallci
↦ C. Witzig
1–2 O. Kabwit
T. Owusu
86′
89′
🔁 J. Ruiz
↦ C. Okoroji
90′
🟨 Lukas Görtler
2–2 A. Vasovic
O. Kabwit
90′
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Luzern

4-3-1-2
1 P. Loretz G
20 P. Dorn D
5 S. Knezevic D
46 B. Freimann D
14 A. Ciganiks D
29 L. Winkler M
6 T. Abe M
24 T. Owusu M
11 M. Di Giusto M
81 J. Von Moos F
27 L. Villiger F
Bench (9)
90 V. Vasic
4 A. Bajrami
22 R. Dantas
2 S. Ottiger
73 L. M. Silva Ferreira
34 D. Xhemalija
16 O. Kabwit
10 S. Karweina
19 A. Vasovic

Coach: Mario Frick

St. Gallen

3-1-4-2
1 L. Ati Zigi G
26 T. Gaal D
72 C. May D
36 C. Okoroji D
10 L. Daschner M
28 H. Vandermersch M
16 L. Gortler M
11 C. Boukhalfa M
7 C. Witzig M
18 A. Vogt F
14 A. Balde F
Bench (9)
25 L. Watkowiak
74 J. Ruiz
20 A. Vallci
64 M. Stevanovic
66 N. Weibel
69 D. Besio
21 M. Efekele
77 T. Ouattara
19 A. Verinac

Coach: Enrico Maassen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
U ✓
B
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

F San · 140 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,17 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.