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Eredivisie
Referee: J van der Laan
Heerenveen
S S U S T
1–1
Full-time
Utrecht
T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen Utrecht
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
67%
0%
Points per game
2,2
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,5
3,0
Scored
2,3
0,8
Conceded
1,2
2,2
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Eredivisie · 18/18 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,3
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 62%
67%
56%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,2
2,8
Scored
1,6
1,5
Conceded
1,6
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,1
+0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,64 xG 0,83
60% Possession 40%
19 Shots 11
3 Shots on target 4
8 Blocked shots 3
3 Goalkeeper saves 2
5 Corners 6
1 Offside 0
11 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Heerenveen 11. · Utrecht 13.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 PSV Eindhoven 21 18 2 1 +39 +20.9 56
2 Feyenoord 21 12 3 6 +19 +18.3 39
3 Nijmegen 20 11 5 4 +18 +6.8 38
4 Ajax 20 9 8 3 +11 +6.9 35
5 Sparta Rotterdam 21 11 2 8 -7 -2.8 35
6 AZ Alkmaar 21 9 5 7 +1 +13.3 32
7 Twente 21 7 10 4 +7 +20.7 31
8 Groningen 20 9 4 7 +4 +11.3 31
9 Zwolle 21 7 5 9 -13 -14.7 26
10 For Sittard 21 7 4 10 -5 -13.8 25
11 Heerenveen 18 6 5 7 +1 +11.9 23
12 Excelsior 21 6 5 10 -15 -13.1 23
13 Utrecht 18 6 4 8 +3 -1.6 22
14 Go Ahead Eagles 19 4 9 6 -3 -12.1 21
15 Volendam 20 4 5 11 -14 -20.1 17
16 Heracles 21 5 2 14 -23 -14.0 17
17 NAC Breda 21 3 7 11 -11 -8.2 16
18 Telstar 21 3 7 11 -12 -9.8 16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Heerenveen Utrecht
1–0 J. Trenskow
O. Braude
24′
Half-time 1–0
Maas Willemsen 🟨
47′
52′
🟨 Matisse Didden
54′
J. Karlsson 1–1
A. Alarcon
Ringo Meerveld ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
61′
64′
🔁 O. Agougil
↦ C. Bozdogan
64′
🔁 Y. Cathline
↦ J. Karlsson
L. Oyen 🔁
↦ M. Rivera
68′
72′
🔁 M. Rodriguez
↦ A. Alarcon
85′
🔁 A. Stepanov
↦ G. Zechiel
E. Gurbuz 🔁
↦ R. Meerveld
86′
89′
🟨 Yoann Cathline
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Heerenveen

4-2-3-1
22 B. Klaverboer G
45 O. Braude D
6 J. van Overeem D
3 M. Willemsen D
19 V. Zagaritis D
16 M. Linday M
8 L. Brouwers M
20 J. Trenskow M
10 R. Meerveld M
7 M. Rivera M
9 D. Vente F
Bench (11)
31 N. Bakker
44 A. Noppert
28 H. Petrov
15 M. Egbring
38 I. Mulder
17 N. Hopland
35 I. Ahmed
36 N. Courtens
50 E. Gurbuz
11 L. Oyen
26 A. van Axel Dongen

Coach: Robin Veldman

Utrecht

4-3-3
1 V. Barkas G
23 N. Vesterlund D
40 M. Didden D
3 M. van der Hoorn D
55 D. Murkin D
21 G. Zechiel M
27 A. Engwanda M
8 C. Bozdogan M
77 A. Alarcon F
20 D. de Wit F
11 J. Karlsson F
Bench (10)
25 M. Brouwer
33 K. Gadellaa
50 V. Plantinga
24 N. Viergever
38 O. Agougil
6 D. van den Berg
15 A. Blake
10 Y. Cathline
22 M. Rodriguez
18 A. Stepanov

Coach: Ron Jans

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,85
U ✓
3,72
B
3,81
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,63
U2,5 ✓
2,16
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J van der Laan · 63 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,08 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.