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Super League

Referee: S Wolfensberger

Basel

U U T S T

1–2

Full-time

Thun

T S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Basel Thun

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,3

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,2

4,5

Scored

1,5

3,2

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 21/21 matches

Win Ø 60%

48%

71%

Points per game

1,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

57%

76%

Both score Ø 67%

62%

71%

Average goals

2,7

3,4

Scored

1,6

2,2

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,82 xG 0,83

55% Possession 45%

18 Shots 11

8 Shots on target 2

4 Blocked shots 7

0 Goalkeeper saves 7

4 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 24

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Basel 4. · Thun 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	21	15	1	5	+21	+1.3	46
2	Lugano	22	12	4	6	+11	+1.2	40
3	St. Gallen	21	12	2	7	+14	+3.8	38
4	Basel	21	10	6	5	+9	+11.2	36
5	Sion	22	8	9	5	+6	+4.2	33
6	Young Boys	21	8	5	8	-5	-1.1	29
7	Lausanne	22	7	7	8	+2	+5.5	28
8	Servette	22	6	7	9	-5	+3.3	25
9	Zurich	21	7	4	10	-8	+3.4	25
10	Luzern	22	5	8	9	-3	-4.6	23
11	Grasshoppers	22	4	7	11	-11	-13.9	19
12	Winterthur	21	3	4	14	-31	-14.1	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lugano	11	7	2	2	+11	+2.2	23
2	Thun	11	7	1	3	+10	-1.0	22
3	St. Gallen	11	6	0	5	+7	+5.4	18
4	Sion	11	5	3	3	+6	+1.1	18
5	Young Boys	10	5	2	3	+6	+5.7	17
6	Basel	10	4	4	2	+7	+14.0	16
7	Lausanne	11	4	3	4	+3	+8.0	15
8	Zurich	11	4	1	6	-4	+5.0	13
9	Servette	11	2	5	4	-3	+0.8	11
10	Grasshoppers	11	2	4	5	-1	-5.1	10
11	Luzern	11	1	5	5	-2	+1.8	8
12	Winterthur	10	2	2	6	-7	-2.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Thun	10	8	0	2	+11	+2.3	24
2	St. Gallen	10	6	2	2	+7	-1.6	20
3	Basel	11	6	2	3	+2	-2.8	20
4	Lugano	11	5	2	4	+0	-1.0	17
5	Sion	11	3	6	2	+0	+3.1	15
6	Luzern	11	4	3	4	-1	-6.4	15
7	Servette	11	4	2	5	-2	+2.5	14
8	Lausanne	11	3	4	4	-1	-2.6	13
9	Zurich	10	3	3	4	-4	-1.6	12
10	Young Boys	11	3	3	5	-11	-6.9	12
11	Grasshoppers	11	2	3	6	-10	-8.8	9
12	Winterthur	11	1	2	8	-24	-11.8	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.