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Championship
Referee: L Doughty
Hull
U U T T S
4–1
Full-time
Cardiff
U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hull Cardiff
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
17%
0%
Points per game
0,8
0,2
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
2,2
3,3
Scored
0,8
0,7
Conceded
1,3
2,7
Goal diff per game
-0,5
-2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
17%
0%
Points per game
1,0
0,2
Over 2.5 Ø 17%
17%
17%
Both score Ø 34%
50%
17%
Average goals
2,0
2,3
Scored
0,8
0,2
Conceded
1,2
2,2
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,26 xG 1,87
49% Possession 51%
18 Shots 16
9 Shots on target 5
3 Blocked shots 5
4 Goalkeeper saves 5
7 Corners 5
1 Offside 0
9 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hull 18. · Cardiff 24.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 West Brom 7 5 1 1 +7 +5.3 16
2 Sunderland 6 5 0 1 +9 +4.1 15
3 Blackburn 7 4 3 0 +8 +1.5 15
4 Sheffield United 6 4 2 0 +6 +3.3 14
5 Burnley 6 4 1 1 +9 -0.8 13
6 Leeds 6 3 2 1 +5 +7.4 11
7 Norwich 7 3 2 2 +2 +2.6 11
8 Swansea 6 3 1 2 +3 -3.3 10
9 Watford 6 3 1 2 +1 -2.1 10
10 Oxford 6 3 0 3 +2 -0.9 9
11 Derby 7 3 0 4 +0 -1.8 9
12 Middlesbrough 6 2 2 2 +1 +6.3 8
13 Plymouth 7 2 2 3 -3 -8.6 8
14 Bristol City 6 2 2 2 -4 -0.1 8
15 QPR 7 1 4 2 -3 -2.4 7
16 Sheffield Weds 7 2 1 4 -5 -1.8 7
17 Luton 7 2 1 4 -5 +2.5 7
18 Hull 6 1 3 2 -2 +0.5 6
19 Stoke 6 2 0 4 -5 -1.4 6
20 Millwall 6 1 2 3 +0 +4.4 5
21 Coventry 6 1 2 3 -2 +3.8 5
22 Preston 6 1 2 3 -6 -5.8 5
23 Portsmouth 6 0 3 3 -6 -7.2 3
24 Cardiff 6 0 1 5 -12 -5.6 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Hull Cardiff
13′
🟨 William Fish
18′
C. Robinson 0–1
A. El Ghazi
22′
🟨 Jamilu Collins
1–1 M. Belloumi
Ó. Zambrano
22′
Sean McLoughlin 🟨
28′
2–1 M. Belloumi
M. Mehlem
35′
40′
🔁 A. Rinomhota
↦ W. Fish
Half-time 3–1
3–1 Ó. Zambrano
M. Mehlem
51′
57′
🟨 Callum O'Dowda
L. Millar 🔁
↦ M. Belloumi
59′
62′
🔁 O. Tanner
↦ J. Collins
62′
🔁 C. Willock
↦ C. Robinson
Regan Slater 🟨
69′
K. Palmer 🔁
↦ R. Slater
72′
A. Kamara 🔁
↦ A. Ömür
72′
X. Simons 🔁
↦ Ó. Zambrano
73′
73′
🔁 D. Turnbull
↦ C. ODowda
74′
🔁 W. Kanga
↦ A. El Ghazi
75′
🟨 Perry Ng
Marvin Mehlem 🟨
76′
S. Alzate 🔁
↦ M. Mehlem
83′
4–1 C. Bedia
91′
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Hull

4-3-3
1 I. Pandur G
2 L. Coyle D
5 A. Jones D
6 S. McLoughlin D
23 C. Drameh D
27 R. Slater M
25 Ó. Zambrano M
8 M. Mehlem M
33 M. Belloumi F
9 C. Bedia F
10 A. Ömür F
Bench (9)
7 L. Millar
45 K. Palmer
44 A. Kamara
18 X. Simons
19 S. Alzate
48 M. Burstow
22 C. Rushworth
3 R. Giles
17 F. Burns

Coach: T. Walter

Cardiff

4-2-3-1
21 J. Alnwick G
38 P. Ng D
12 C. Chambers D
2 W. Fish D
17 J. Collins D
18 A. Robertson M
8 J. Ralls M
11 C. O'Dowda M
27 R. Colwill M
20 A. El Ghazi M
47 C. Robinson F
Bench (9)
35 A. Rinomhota
32 O. Tanner
16 C. Willock
14 D. Turnbull
15 W. Kanga
37 T. Davies
1 E. Horvath
45 C. Ashford
49 L. Giles

Coach: O. Riza

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,89
U
3,76
B
3,84
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,91
U2,5
1,89
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

L Doughty · 109 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,5 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,14 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.