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Ligue 1
Referee: M Bollengier
Monaco
S U S S S
2–1
Full-time
Montpellier
U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Monaco Montpellier
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
83%
17%
Points per game
2,7
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,5
4,0
Scored
2,0
1,2
Conceded
0,5
2,8
Goal diff per game
+1,5
-1,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 50%
80%
20%
Points per game
2,6
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
40%
80%
Both score Ø 50%
40%
60%
Average goals
2,4
4,0
Scored
2,0
1,0
Conceded
0,4
3,0
Goal diff per game
+1,6
-2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,25 xG 0,88
65% Possession 35%
21 Shots 9
7 Shots on target 4
4 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
6 Corners 2
2 Offside 2
17 Free kicks against 17
4 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Monaco 3. · Montpellier 16.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 6 5 1 0 +15 +11.8 16
2 Marseille 5 4 1 0 +9 -0.4 13
3 Monaco 5 4 1 0 +8 +6.9 13
4 Lille 6 3 1 2 +4 +3.8 10
5 Lens 6 2 4 0 +3 +4.7 10
6 Nice 6 2 2 2 +8 +4.8 8
7 Nantes 5 2 2 1 +3 +0.4 8
8 Reims 5 2 2 1 +0 -6.0 8
9 Rennes 6 2 1 3 +1 -0.0 7
10 Strasbourg 5 1 3 1 +1 +0.8 6
11 Auxerre 6 2 0 4 -4 -3.2 6
12 Brest 6 2 0 4 -5 -6.2 6
13 Le Havre 6 2 0 4 -6 -4.9 6
14 Toulouse 5 1 2 2 -2 +4.5 5
15 Lyon 5 1 1 3 -5 -0.3 4
16 Montpellier 5 1 1 3 -10 -3.4 4
17 St Etienne 5 1 0 4 -14 -10.1 3
18 Angers 5 0 2 3 -6 -3.1 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Monaco Montpellier
4′
🟨 Modibo Sagnan
12′
🟨 Tanguy Coulibaly
16′
R. Nzingoula 0–1
A. Adams
1–1 F. Balogun
B. Embolo
32′
Half-time 1–1
46′
🔁 E. Tchato
↦ F. Sacko
Denis Zakaria 🟨
50′
Vanderson 🟨
50′
G. Ilenikhena 🔁
↦ M. Akliouche
67′
L. Camara 🔁
↦ E. Ben Seghir
67′
68′
🔁 B. Touré
↦ R. Nzingoula
74′
🔁 W. Khazri
↦ A. Nordin
K. Ouattara 🔁
↦ Caio Henrique
78′
J. Teze 🔁
↦ Vanderson
78′
Mohammed Salisu 🟨
82′
Lamine Camara 🟨
88′
90′
🔁 I. Sylla
↦ A. Adams
92′
🟨 Tanguy Coulibaly
92′
🟥 Tanguy Coulibaly
2–1 L. Camara
B. Embolo
98′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Monaco

4-2-2-2
16 P. Köhn G
2 Vanderson D
17 W. Singo D
22 M. Salisu D
12 Caio Henrique D
6 D. Zakaria M
10 A. Golovin M
11 M. Akliouche M
7 E. Ben Seghir M
9 F. Balogun F
36 B. Embolo F
Bench (9)
21 G. Ilenikhena
15 L. Camara
20 K. Ouattara
4 J. Teze
8 E. Matazo
50 Y. Lienard
5 T. Kehrer
13 C. Mawissa
27 K. Diatta

Coach: A. Hütter

Montpellier

4-2-3-1
16 D. Bertaud G
77 F. Sacko D
27 B. Omeragić D
5 M. Sagnan D
21 L. Mincarelli D
19 R. Nzingoula M
22 K. Fayad M
7 A. Nordin M
11 T. Savanier M
70 T. Coulibaly M
8 A. Adams F
Bench (9)
29 E. Tchato
20 B. Touré
10 W. Khazri
3 I. Sylla
15 G. Barès
40 B. Lecomte
44 T. Chennahi
46 S. Cara
45 S. Džodić

Coach: M. Der Zakarian

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,34
U
5,59
B
8,22
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,44
U2,5
2,79
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Bollengier · 79 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,5 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.