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Championship

Referee: R Madley

Coventry

T S T T U

3–2

Full-time

Luton

T U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Coventry Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 23%

18%

27%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

45%

64%

Both score Ø 55%

55%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,4

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

3,34 xG 1,71

67% Possession 33%

26 Shots 9

10 Shots on target 5

7 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

11 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Coventry 22. · Luton 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	11	8	1	2	+12	+2.3	25
2	Burnley	11	6	4	1	+12	+1.5	22
3	Leeds	11	6	4	1	+11	+10.7	22
4	Sheffield United	11	6	3	2	+6	+2.6	21
5	West Brom	11	5	4	2	+6	+4.9	19
6	Blackburn	11	5	4	2	+5	-0.0	19
7	Norwich	11	4	5	2	+6	+5.0	17
8	Middlesbrough	11	5	2	4	+2	+10.6	17
9	Watford	11	5	1	5	-4	-5.6	16
10	Bristol City	11	3	6	2	-2	+1.2	15
11	Sheffield Weds	12	4	3	5	-5	-1.9	15
12	Oxford	11	3	5	3	+2	-3.1	14
13	Derby	11	4	2	5	+0	-1.9	14
14	Millwall	11	3	4	4	+2	+8.1	13
15	Swansea	11	3	4	4	+1	-2.4	13
16	Hull	11	3	4	4	-2	-2.9	13
17	Preston	11	3	4	4	-4	-2.9	13
18	Stoke	11	3	3	5	-2	-5.0	12
19	Luton	11	3	2	6	-5	+2.9	11
20	Cardiff	11	3	2	6	-7	-2.1	11
21	Plymouth	11	3	2	6	-9	-11.2	11
22	Coventry	11	2	3	6	-4	+1.4	9
23	QPR	11	1	5	5	-8	-2.8	8
24	Portsmouth	12	1	5	6	-13	-9.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Blackburn	6	5	1	0	+9	+2.6	16
2	Sunderland	5	4	1	0	+8	+1.4	13
3	Leeds	6	4	1	1	+7	+7.1	13
4	Watford	5	4	1	0	+6	+1.4	13
5	Sheffield United	5	4	1	0	+5	+4.9	13
6	Derby	5	4	0	1	+6	+1.1	12
7	Oxford	6	3	3	0	+5	-0.7	12
8	Burnley	5	3	2	0	+7	+0.9	11
9	Preston	6	3	2	1	+3	+2.0	11
10	Middlesbrough	6	3	2	1	+2	+9.1	11
11	Millwall	6	3	1	2	+4	+7.3	10
12	Plymouth	5	3	1	1	+3	+0.3	10
13	Norwich	5	2	3	0	+7	+5.5	9
14	Swansea	5	2	3	0	+4	+2.3	9
15	Cardiff	6	3	0	3	+2	-0.5	9
16	Bristol City	5	2	3	0	+2	+0.8	9
17	Stoke	6	2	2	2	+3	-0.8	8
18	Sheffield Weds	6	2	2	2	+1	+2.9	8
19	West Brom	5	2	2	1	+1	+3.7	8
20	Luton	6	2	1	3	-1	+3.2	7
21	Coventry	5	2	0	3	+1	+3.3	6
22	Hull	6	1	3	2	+0	+0.9	6
23	QPR	6	0	3	3	-5	+0.5	3
24	Portsmouth	6	0	3	3	-6	-3.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	6	4	0	2	+4	+0.9	12
2	West Brom	6	3	2	1	+5	+1.2	11
3	Burnley	6	3	2	1	+5	+0.6	11
4	Leeds	5	2	3	0	+4	+3.6	9
5	Sheffield United	6	2	2	2	+1	-2.3	8
6	Norwich	6	2	2	2	-1	-0.5	8
7	Hull	5	2	1	2	-2	-3.9	7
8	Sheffield Weds	6	2	1	3	-6	-4.8	7
9	Middlesbrough	5	2	0	3	+0	+1.6	6
10	Bristol City	6	1	3	2	-4	+0.4	6
11	QPR	5	1	2	2	-3	-3.3	5
12	Portsmouth	6	1	2	3	-7	-6.2	5
13	Swansea	6	1	1	4	-3	-4.7	4
14	Luton	5	1	1	3	-4	-0.4	4
15	Stoke	5	1	1	3	-5	-4.2	4
16	Millwall	5	0	3	2	-2	+0.8	3
17	Blackburn	5	0	3	2	-4	-2.7	3
18	Coventry	6	0	3	3	-5	-2.0	3
19	Watford	6	1	0	5	-10	-7.0	3
20	Oxford	5	0	2	3	-3	-2.4	2
21	Derby	6	0	2	4	-6	-3.0	2
22	Preston	5	0	2	3	-7	-4.9	2
23	Cardiff	5	0	2	3	-9	-1.6	2
24	Plymouth	6	0	1	5	-12	-11.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.