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Bundesliga

Referee: R Hartmann

Stuttgart

U U U T S

2–1

Full-time

Holstein Kiel

T U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stuttgart Holstein Kiel

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,5

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,2

4,2

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,5

3,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 15%

29%

Points per game

1,3

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 79%

86%

71%

Both score Ø 79%

86%

71%

Average goals

4,3

Scored

2,1

1,3

Conceded

2,1

3,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,63 xG 0,51

59% Possession 41%

16 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 5

2 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 6

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Stuttgart 11. · Holstein Kiel 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	5	2	0	+17	+12.2	17
2	RB Leipzig	7	5	2	0	+9	+2.8	17
3	Freiburg	7	5	0	2	+4	+4.5	15
4	Leverkusen	7	4	2	1	+5	+7.4	14
5	Union Berlin	7	4	2	1	+4	+0.1	14
6	Ein Frankfurt	7	4	1	2	+4	+0.6	13
7	Dortmund	7	4	1	2	+2	+2.4	13
8	Werder Bremen	7	3	2	2	-2	-0.1	11
9	M'gladbach	8	3	1	4	-2	-0.6	10
10	Heidenheim	7	3	0	4	+1	+0.1	9
11	Stuttgart	7	2	3	2	+0	+2.3	9
12	Mainz	8	2	3	3	-1	-4.3	9
13	Wolfsburg	7	2	1	4	-1	-2.3	7
14	Hoffenheim	7	2	1	4	-4	-6.7	7
15	Augsburg	7	2	1	4	-8	-0.5	7
16	St Pauli	7	1	1	5	-6	-4.5	4
17	Holstein Kiel	7	0	2	5	-12	-5.4	2
18	Bochum	7	0	1	6	-10	-8.0	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Dortmund	4	4	0	0	+7	+5.6	12
2	Union Berlin	3	3	0	0	+3	+2.1	9
3	Freiburg	4	3	0	1	+2	+4.4	9
4	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+6	+4.8	7
5	RB Leipzig	3	2	1	0	+5	+2.9	7
6	Ein Frankfurt	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.4	7
7	Augsburg	4	2	1	1	+2	+4.1	7
8	Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	+1	+4.9	7
9	Hoffenheim	4	2	0	2	-1	-3.2	6
10	M'gladbach	4	2	0	2	-1	+0.0	6
11	Stuttgart	3	1	2	0	+4	+5.5	5
12	Heidenheim	3	1	0	2	+0	+1.2	3
13	Mainz	5	0	2	3	-5	-1.1	2
14	Wolfsburg	4	0	1	3	-4	-2.0	1
15	Bochum	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.4	1
16	St Pauli	3	0	1	2	-5	+0.5	1
17	Werder Bremen	3	0	1	2	-6	-3.3	1
18	Holstein Kiel	4	0	0	4	-11	-3.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	+11	+7.4	10
2	Werder Bremen	4	3	1	0	+4	+3.2	10
3	RB Leipzig	4	3	1	0	+4	-0.1	10
4	Mainz	3	2	1	0	+4	-3.2	7
5	Leverkusen	3	2	1	0	+4	+2.5	7
6	Wolfsburg	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.3	6
7	Freiburg	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.1	6
8	Heidenheim	4	2	0	2	+1	-1.1	6
9	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	0	2	+0	-0.8	6
10	Union Berlin	4	1	2	1	+1	-2.0	5
11	M'gladbach	4	1	1	2	-1	-0.6	4
12	Stuttgart	4	1	1	2	-4	-3.2	4
13	St Pauli	4	1	0	3	-1	-5.0	3
14	Holstein Kiel	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.6	2
15	Hoffenheim	3	0	1	2	-3	-3.5	1
16	Dortmund	3	0	1	2	-5	-3.3	1
17	Bochum	4	0	0	4	-6	-4.5	0
18	Augsburg	3	0	0	3	-10	-4.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.