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Championship
Referee: T Nield
Derby
T U T T T
0–1
Full-time

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Sheffield United
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
0%
50%
Points per game
0,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
2,5
2,5
Scored
0,7
1,2
Conceded
1,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
-1,2
-0,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 29/27 matches
Win Ø 42%
24%
59%
Points per game
0,9
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
45%
30%
Both score Ø 43%
55%
30%
Average goals
2,5
2,1
Scored
1,1
1,4
Conceded
1,4
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,86 xG 0,91
51% Possession 49%
10 Shots 6
2 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 0
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
2 Corners 2
2 Offside 4
10 Free kicks against 12
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Derby 22. · Sheffield United 4.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Leeds 29 17 9 3 +34 +30.6 60
2 Burnley 29 15 12 2 +27 +6.8 57
3 Sunderland 27 15 9 3 +19 +8.9 54
4 Sheffield United 27 16 6 5 +17 +12.6 54
5 Blackburn 30 13 6 11 +5 -0.6 45
6 West Brom 30 10 14 6 +12 +6.6 44
7 Middlesbrough 29 12 8 9 +11 +15.3 44
8 Norwich 30 11 9 10 +7 +8.1 42
9 Bristol City 29 10 12 7 +4 +4.7 42
10 Watford 30 12 5 13 -2 -8.0 41
11 Sheffield Weds 29 11 8 10 -3 -5.4 41
12 QPR 29 9 11 9 -5 -4.3 38
13 Millwall 29 9 10 10 +2 +5.8 37
14 Coventry 28 10 7 11 +1 +16.9 37
15 Preston 30 8 13 9 -5 -0.8 37
16 Oxford 30 9 10 11 -10 -12.9 37
17 Swansea 29 9 7 13 -8 -0.8 34
18 Cardiff 29 7 10 12 -11 -8.7 31
19 Hull 29 7 8 14 -8 -4.8 29
20 Stoke 29 6 11 12 -10 -15.4 29
21 Portsmouth 29 7 8 14 -16 -14.9 29
22 Derby 29 7 6 16 -8 -6.6 27
23 Luton 29 7 5 17 -19 -3.4 26
24 Plymouth 30 5 10 15 -34 -29.5 25

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Derby Sheffield United
Half-time 0–0
M. Harness 🔁
↦ R. Nyambe
46′
49′
B. Brereton 0–1
T. Cannon
61′
🔁 T. Campbell
↦ C. OHare
62′
🔁 J. Rak-Sakyi
↦ B. Brereton
L. Thompson 🔁
↦ D. Ozoh
67′
Marcus Harness 🟨
70′
70′
🟨 Vinícius Souza
N. Mendez-Laing 🔁
↦ K. Jackson
74′
75′
🔁 S. McCallum
↦ R. Brewster
78′
🔁 S. Peck
↦ T. Cannon
T. Barkhuizen 🔁
↦ K. Goudmijn
80′
Full-time 0–1

Line-ups

Derby

3-4-1-2
1 J. Widell Zetterström G
24 R. Nyambe D
25 M. Clarke D
3 C. Forsyth D
19 K. Jackson M
4 D. Ozoh M
32 E. Adams M
8 B. Osborn M
17 K. Goudmijn F
15 L. Salvesen F
10 J. Yates F
Bench (9)
18 M. Harness
16 L. Thompson
11 N. Mendez-Laing
7 T. Barkhuizen
31 J. Vickers
47 D. Cox
43 C. Allen
48 L. Wheeldon
21 J. Rooney

Coach: P. Warne

Sheffield United

4-2-3-1
1 M. Cooper G
18 H. Clarke D
15 A. Ahmedhodžić D
19 J. Robinson D
14 H. Burrows D
24 H. Choudhury M
21 Vinicius Souza M
20 B. Brereton M
7 R. Brewster M
10 C. O'Hare M
28 T. Cannon F
Bench (9)
23 T. Campbell
11 J. Rak-Sakyi
3 S. McCallum
42 S. Peck
2 A. Gilchrist
39 R. Oné
35 A. Brooks
33 R. Norrington-Davies
17 A. Davies

Coach: C. Wilder

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,46
U
3,21
B ✓
2,17
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,21
U2,5 ✓
1,65
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

T Nield · 63 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,04 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.