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Primeira Liga

Referee: Pedro Ramalho

Nacional

U T S S T

1–2

Full-time

Arouca

T U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 26%

26%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

32%

47%

Both score Ø 40%

32%

47%

Average goals

2,2

2,4

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,79 xG 1,56

60% Possession 40%

19 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 3

3 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 20

5 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Nacional 13. · Arouca 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	19	15	2	2	+39	+33.6	47
2	Benfica	19	13	2	4	+29	+23.2	41
3	Porto	19	13	2	4	+27	+21.0	41
4	Sp Braga	19	11	4	4	+15	+14.8	37
5	Santa Clara	19	10	2	7	+1	+6.8	32
6	Casa Pia	19	8	6	5	+2	-3.6	30
7	Guimaraes	19	6	8	5	+3	+5.5	26
8	Famalicao	20	5	9	6	-2	-6.6	24
9	Estoril	19	6	6	7	-8	-14.9	24
10	Moreirense	19	6	5	8	-4	+0.7	23
11	Rio Ave	19	6	5	8	-12	-15.7	23
12	Gil Vicente	19	5	7	7	-6	-6.7	22
13	Nacional	19	5	4	10	-10	-3.2	19
14	Arouca	19	5	4	10	-14	-10.7	19
15	AVS	19	3	9	7	-12	-8.1	18
16	Estrela	19	4	5	10	-14	-11.4	17
17	Farense	19	3	6	10	-13	-14.8	15
18	Boavista	20	2	6	12	-21	-9.8	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	10	9	1	0	+23	+21.8	28
2	Benfica	10	9	0	1	+26	+17.4	27
3	Sp Lisbon	9	8	0	1	+16	+13.7	24
4	Santa Clara	10	6	1	3	+1	+9.5	19
5	Gil Vicente	9	4	4	1	+7	+1.4	16
6	Guimaraes	9	4	4	1	+4	+3.9	16
7	Casa Pia	10	4	4	2	+4	+0.5	16
8	Moreirense	9	4	4	1	+2	-1.5	16
9	Rio Ave	9	4	4	1	+1	-1.7	16
10	Nacional	9	5	1	3	-1	-1.3	16
11	Sp Braga	10	4	3	3	+6	+11.7	15
12	Estoril	10	4	3	3	-2	-6.1	15
13	Estrela	10	4	2	4	-2	-4.4	14
14	AVS	10	3	4	3	-4	-5.6	13
15	Famalicao	10	2	5	3	-2	-0.3	11
16	Arouca	9	3	2	4	-4	-6.7	11
17	Farense	9	2	1	6	-8	-4.5	7
18	Boavista	10	0	3	7	-13	-4.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	7	2	1	+23	+19.9	23
2	Sp Braga	9	7	1	1	+9	+3.1	22
3	Benfica	9	4	2	3	+3	+5.9	14
4	Casa Pia	9	4	2	3	-2	-4.1	14
5	Porto	9	4	1	4	+4	-0.8	13
6	Famalicao	10	3	4	3	+0	-6.3	13
7	Santa Clara	9	4	1	4	+0	-2.7	13
8	Guimaraes	10	2	4	4	-1	+1.6	10
9	Estoril	9	2	3	4	-6	-8.8	9
10	Boavista	10	2	3	5	-8	-5.8	9
11	Farense	10	1	5	4	-5	-10.3	8
12	Arouca	10	2	2	6	-10	-3.9	8
13	Moreirense	10	2	1	7	-6	+2.2	7
14	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-13	-14.0	7
15	Gil Vicente	10	1	3	6	-13	-8.1	6
16	AVS	9	0	5	4	-8	-2.4	5
17	Nacional	10	0	3	7	-9	-2.0	3
18	Estrela	9	0	3	6	-12	-7.0	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.