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Championship

Referee: A Kitchen

Burnley

U S S S S

3–1

Full-time

Millwall

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Millwall

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 83%

83%

Points per game

2,7

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,5

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 45/45 matches

Win Ø 50%

60%

40%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

31%

29%

Both score Ø 36%

29%

42%

Average goals

1,8

2,0

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

0,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,26 xG 1,51

71% Possession 29%

19 Shots 12

9 Shots on target 4

6 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 4

4 Offside 5

5 Free kicks against 16

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 2. · Millwall 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	45	28	13	4	+64	+57.1	97
2	Burnley	45	27	16	2	+51	+20.1	97
3	Sheffield United	42	26	6	10	+25	+15.2	84
4	Sunderland	42	21	12	9	+19	+11.4	75
5	Bristol City	43	17	15	11	+5	+0.5	66
6	Millwall	45	18	12	15	+0	+3.7	66
7	Blackburn	45	19	8	18	+5	-1.4	65
8	Middlesbrough	45	18	10	17	+10	+10.8	64
9	Coventry	43	18	8	17	+1	+15.1	62
10	West Brom	45	14	19	12	+8	+11.0	61
11	Swansea	45	17	9	19	-5	+1.4	60
12	Sheffield Weds	45	15	12	18	-9	+0.0	57
13	Watford	45	16	8	21	-8	-10.5	56
14	Norwich	45	13	15	17	+1	+7.9	54
15	QPR	45	13	14	18	-11	-8.3	53
16	Portsmouth	45	14	11	20	-13	-11.0	53
17	Oxford	45	13	13	19	-16	-25.6	52
18	Stoke	45	12	14	19	-17	-19.8	50
19	Derby	45	13	10	22	-8	-6.5	49
20	Preston	45	10	19	16	-11	-5.3	49
21	Luton	45	13	10	22	-22	-5.3	49
22	Hull	45	12	12	21	-10	-5.3	48
23	Plymouth	45	11	13	21	-36	-40.5	46
24	Cardiff	45	9	17	19	-23	-14.7	44

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	23	18	4	1	+49	+37.8	58
2	Burnley	22	13	9	0	+25	+11.3	48
3	Bristol City	21	13	6	2	+17	+9.3	45
4	Sheffield United	20	14	2	4	+15	+15.1	44
5	Sunderland	21	12	6	3	+15	+14.2	42
6	Blackburn	23	12	4	7	+11	+6.8	40
7	Millwall	23	12	4	7	+8	+10.0	40
8	Portsmouth	22	11	6	5	+12	+6.1	39
9	Coventry	21	12	3	6	+11	+10.8	39
10	Middlesbrough	23	11	6	6	+8	+9.1	39
11	Watford	22	12	3	7	+5	-0.4	39
12	West Brom	22	10	8	4	+11	+10.7	38
13	Oxford	23	11	5	7	+2	-6.5	38
14	Norwich	22	9	8	5	+16	+11.0	35
15	Swansea	22	10	5	7	+9	+9.7	35
16	Luton	23	9	7	7	+3	+10.1	34
17	Plymouth	22	9	7	6	+2	-5.3	34
18	Stoke	23	8	9	6	+4	-5.4	33
19	Preston	23	7	12	4	+4	+7.1	33
20	Derby	22	9	4	9	+7	+3.4	31
21	QPR	23	7	8	8	-3	+0.4	29
22	Cardiff	23	7	6	10	-3	+0.5	27
23	Sheffield Weds	23	6	8	9	-2	+6.6	26
24	Hull	23	5	8	10	-4	+5.7	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	23	14	7	2	+26	+8.8	49
2	Sheffield United	22	12	4	6	+10	+0.2	40
3	Leeds	22	10	9	3	+15	+19.2	39
4	Sunderland	21	9	6	6	+4	-2.8	33
5	Sheffield Weds	22	9	4	9	-7	-6.5	31
6	Millwall	22	6	8	8	-8	-6.3	26
7	Middlesbrough	22	7	4	11	+2	+1.7	25
8	Hull	22	7	4	11	-6	-11.0	25
9	Blackburn	22	7	4	11	-6	-8.2	25
10	Swansea	23	7	4	12	-14	-8.2	25
11	QPR	22	6	6	10	-8	-8.7	24
12	West Brom	23	4	11	8	-3	+0.2	23
13	Coventry	22	6	5	11	-10	+4.4	23
14	Bristol City	22	4	9	9	-12	-8.8	21
15	Norwich	23	4	7	12	-15	-3.1	19
16	Derby	23	4	6	13	-15	-9.9	18
17	Watford	23	4	5	14	-13	-10.1	17
18	Cardiff	22	2	11	9	-20	-15.2	17
19	Stoke	22	4	5	13	-21	-14.4	17
20	Preston	22	3	7	12	-15	-12.4	16
21	Luton	22	4	3	15	-25	-15.4	15
22	Oxford	22	2	8	12	-18	-19.1	14
23	Portsmouth	23	3	5	15	-25	-17.1	14
24	Plymouth	23	2	6	15	-38	-35.1	12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.