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Championship

Referee: G Ward

Millwall

T U U S S

1–0

Full-time

Burnley

S U S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 9%

17%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,5

0,8

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

0,5

0,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 29%

33%

25%

Both score Ø 38%

42%

33%

Average goals

2,3

1,8

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,0

0,4

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,99 xG 0,20

35% Possession 65%

12 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 0

1 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 11. · Burnley 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	13	9	2	2	+14	+2.8	29
2	Sheffield United	13	8	3	2	+10	+5.1	27
3	Leeds	13	7	5	1	+14	+13.7	26
4	Burnley	12	6	5	1	+12	+2.6	23
5	Watford	13	7	1	5	+1	-2.4	22
6	West Brom	13	5	6	2	+6	+5.8	21
7	Blackburn	13	5	4	4	+2	-2.2	19
8	Bristol City	13	4	7	2	+0	+0.4	19
9	Norwich	13	4	6	3	+5	+3.3	18
10	Middlesbrough	13	5	3	5	-1	+11.9	18
11	Millwall	12	4	4	4	+3	+6.5	16
12	Swansea	13	4	4	5	+1	+0.4	16
13	Coventry	13	4	3	6	+0	+4.5	15
14	Derby	13	4	3	6	-1	-4.0	15
15	Hull	13	3	6	4	-2	-2.1	15
16	Stoke	13	4	3	6	-3	-4.4	15
17	Cardiff	13	4	3	6	-6	-4.2	15
18	Sheffield Weds	13	4	3	6	-9	-4.5	15
19	Oxford	13	3	5	5	-1	-5.3	14
20	Preston	13	3	5	5	-6	-2.4	14
21	Luton	13	3	3	7	-6	+1.5	12
22	Plymouth	13	3	3	7	-12	-13.9	12
23	QPR	13	1	7	5	-8	-3.4	10
24	Portsmouth	13	1	6	6	-13	-9.7	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	7	5	1	1	+10	+8.9	16
2	Sunderland	6	5	1	0	+10	+2.5	16
3	Blackburn	7	5	1	1	+7	+1.1	16
4	Watford	6	5	1	0	+7	+2.0	16
5	Sheffield United	6	5	1	0	+7	+5.8	16
6	Derby	6	4	1	1	+6	+0.7	13
7	Burnley	6	3	3	0	+7	+2.0	12
8	Oxford	7	3	3	1	+4	-1.9	12
9	Cardiff	7	4	0	3	+3	-1.6	12
10	Stoke	7	3	2	2	+4	+0.8	11
11	Plymouth	6	3	2	1	+3	-0.6	11
12	Preston	7	3	2	2	+1	+1.6	11
13	Middlesbrough	7	3	2	2	-1	+7.5	11
14	Norwich	6	2	4	0	+7	+2.7	10
15	Millwall	6	3	1	2	+4	+7.3	10
16	Bristol City	6	2	4	0	+2	-0.4	10
17	Swansea	6	2	3	1	+3	+3.9	9
18	Coventry	6	3	0	3	+2	+5.0	9
19	West Brom	6	2	3	1	+1	+4.8	9
20	Luton	7	2	2	3	-1	+3.5	8
21	Sheffield Weds	7	2	2	3	-3	+0.3	8
22	Hull	7	1	4	2	+0	+1.3	7
23	QPR	7	0	4	3	-5	+1.0	4
24	Portsmouth	6	0	3	3	-6	-3.0	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	7	4	1	2	+4	+0.3	13
2	West Brom	7	3	3	1	+5	+1.0	12
3	Burnley	6	3	2	1	+5	+0.6	11
4	Sheffield United	7	3	2	2	+3	-0.8	11
5	Leeds	6	2	4	0	+4	+4.8	10
6	Bristol City	7	2	3	2	-2	+0.8	9
7	Hull	6	2	2	2	-2	-3.4	8
8	Norwich	7	2	2	3	-2	+0.6	8
9	Middlesbrough	6	2	1	3	+0	+4.3	7
10	Swansea	7	2	1	4	-2	-3.5	7
11	Sheffield Weds	6	2	1	3	-6	-4.8	7
12	Millwall	6	1	3	2	-1	-0.8	6
13	Coventry	7	1	3	3	-2	-0.4	6
14	QPR	6	1	3	2	-3	-4.4	6
15	Watford	7	2	0	5	-6	-4.4	6
16	Portsmouth	7	1	3	3	-7	-6.6	6
17	Luton	6	1	1	4	-5	-2.0	4
18	Stoke	6	1	1	4	-7	-5.1	4
19	Blackburn	6	0	3	3	-5	-3.3	3
20	Preston	6	0	3	3	-7	-4.0	3
21	Cardiff	6	0	3	3	-9	-2.7	3
22	Oxford	6	0	2	4	-5	-3.5	2
23	Derby	7	0	2	5	-7	-4.6	2
24	Plymouth	7	0	1	6	-15	-13.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.