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Ekstraklasa

Referee: P Gryckiewicz

Stal Mielec

T U T U U

0–2

Full-time

Rakow

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stal Mielec Rakow

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,5

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,7

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

2,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 40%

20%

60%

Points per game

0,9

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

53%

37%

Both score Ø 50%

63%

37%

Average goals

2,7

2,1

Scored

1,1

1,5

Conceded

1,6

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,98 xG 1,57

42% Possession 58%

5 Shots 15

1 Shots on target 7

1 Blocked shots 5

5 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 12

1 Offside 3

5 Free kicks against 10

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stal Mielec 17. · Rakow 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	30	18	8	4	+26	+9.9	62
2	Lech Poznan	30	19	3	8	+28	+10.5	60
3	Jagiellonia	30	16	7	7	+13	+3.3	55
4	Pogon Szczecin	30	16	5	9	+18	+16.0	53
5	Legia	30	14	8	8	+16	+15.4	50
6	Cracovia	30	12	9	9	+5	-5.7	45
7	Motor Lublin	30	12	7	11	-7	-0.3	43
8	Gornik Zabrze	30	12	6	12	+4	+5.9	42
9	GKS Katowice	30	12	6	12	+1	-1.2	42
10	Korona Kielce	30	10	10	10	-8	-0.4	40
11	Piast Gliwice	30	9	11	10	-3	-3.9	38
12	Widzew Lodz	30	10	7	13	-9	-6.4	37
13	Radomiak Radom	30	10	6	14	-5	-0.1	36
14	Zaglebie	30	9	6	15	-15	-7.7	33
15	Lechia Gdansk	30	8	6	16	-17	-17.5	30
16	Puszcza	30	6	9	15	-16	-16.8	27
17	Stal Mielec	30	6	8	16	-16	-0.4	26
18	Slask Wroclaw	30	5	10	15	-15	-0.6	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lech Poznan	15	13	0	2	+26	+10.6	39
2	Pogon Szczecin	15	12	1	2	+19	+15.5	37
3	Jagiellonia	15	9	4	2	+14	+4.7	31
4	Legia	15	9	3	3	+15	+11.6	30
5	Rakow	15	9	3	3	+13	+6.7	30
6	GKS Katowice	15	7	4	4	+6	-4.0	25
7	Gornik Zabrze	15	7	3	5	+7	+6.5	24
8	Korona Kielce	15	7	2	6	+0	+4.7	23
9	Widzew Lodz	15	7	2	6	-1	-0.4	23
10	Motor Lublin	15	6	4	5	+2	+0.1	22
11	Radomiak Radom	15	5	5	5	+4	+4.4	20
12	Stal Mielec	15	5	5	5	-1	+4.4	20
13	Lechia Gdansk	15	6	2	7	-5	-7.4	20
14	Piast Gliwice	15	4	7	4	-2	-0.6	19
15	Cracovia	15	4	6	5	+0	-1.3	18
16	Puszcza	15	4	6	5	-2	-3.1	18
17	Zaglebie	15	5	3	7	-5	-4.6	18
18	Slask Wroclaw	15	3	6	6	-3	-0.5	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Rakow	15	9	5	1	+13	+3.2	32
2	Cracovia	15	8	3	4	+5	-4.5	27
3	Jagiellonia	15	7	3	5	-1	-1.5	24
4	Lech Poznan	15	6	3	6	+2	-0.1	21
5	Motor Lublin	15	6	3	6	-9	-0.4	21
6	Legia	15	5	5	5	+1	+3.7	20
7	Piast Gliwice	15	5	4	6	-1	-3.2	19
8	Gornik Zabrze	15	5	3	7	-3	-0.5	18
9	GKS Katowice	15	5	2	8	-5	+2.8	17
10	Korona Kielce	15	3	8	4	-8	-5.1	17
11	Pogon Szczecin	15	4	4	7	-1	+0.5	16
12	Radomiak Radom	15	5	1	9	-9	-4.5	16
13	Zaglebie	15	4	3	8	-10	-3.1	15
14	Widzew Lodz	15	3	5	7	-8	-6.0	14
15	Lechia Gdansk	15	2	4	9	-12	-10.1	10
16	Slask Wroclaw	15	2	4	9	-12	-0.1	10
17	Puszcza	15	2	3	10	-14	-13.7	9
18	Stal Mielec	15	1	3	11	-15	-4.9	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.