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Championship
Referee: Josh Smith
Ipswich
S U S T T
1–0
Full-time
West Brom
U S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ipswich West Brom
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,7
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,3
2,5
Scored
2,0
1,0
Conceded
1,3
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Championship · 10/11 matches
Win Ø 38%
30%
45%
Points per game
1,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 53%
60%
45%
Both score Ø 63%
70%
55%
Average goals
2,9
2,3
Scored
1,6
1,1
Conceded
1,3
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,3
-0,1
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,22 xG 0,39
54% Possession 46%
15 Shots 10
4 Shots on target 1
4 Blocked shots 6
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
4 Corners 5
0 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 8
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ipswich 14. · West Brom 11.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Coventry 11 7 4 0 +23 +16.5 25
2 Middlesbrough 10 7 2 1 +8 +3.2 23
3 Millwall 11 6 2 3 +0 +0.6 20
4 Bristol City 11 5 4 2 +8 +3.5 19
5 Preston 12 5 4 3 +3 -1.1 19
6 Charlton 11 5 3 3 +4 -1.3 18
7 Stoke 11 5 3 3 +4 -0.8 18
8 Hull 11 5 3 3 +0 -7.1 18
9 QPR 11 5 3 3 -1 +0.6 18
10 Leicester 11 4 5 2 +4 -1.6 17
11 West Brom 11 5 2 4 -1 +0.3 17
12 Watford 11 4 3 4 +0 +2.2 15
13 Birmingham 11 4 3 4 -3 +3.8 15
14 Ipswich 10 3 4 3 +3 +7.8 13
15 Wrexham 11 3 4 4 -1 -4.6 13
16 Swansea 11 3 4 4 -1 -4.2 13
17 Portsmouth 11 3 4 4 -2 -3.4 13
18 Southampton 10 2 5 3 -3 +7.2 11
19 Derby 11 2 5 4 -4 -6.4 11
20 Oxford 11 2 3 6 -3 -0.6 9
21 Sheffield United 12 3 0 9 -11 -0.1 9
22 Norwich 11 2 2 7 -5 -6.0 8
23 Blackburn 10 2 1 7 -8 +1.2 7
24 Sheffield Weds 11 1 3 7 -14 -9.6 6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Ipswich West Brom
C. Akpom 🔁
↦ S. Szmodics
21′
Half-time 0–0
M. Nunez 🔁
60′
71′
🔁 K. Grant
↦ S. Iling Junior
George Hirst 🟨
75′
J. Clarke 🔁
↦ J. Philogene
76′
I. Azon 🔁
↦ G. Hirst
76′
J. Cajuste 🔁
↦ J. Taylor
77′
78′
🟨 Chris Mepham
82′
🔁 C. Styles
↦ O. Diakite
82′
🔁 J. Maja
↦ A. Heggebo
1–0 J. Clarke
83′
88′
🔁 D. Dike
↦ G. Campbell
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Ipswich

4-2-3-1
28 C. Walton G
19 D. Furlong D
26 D. O'Shea D
4 C. Kipre D
3 L. Davis D
5 A. Matusiwa M
14 J. Taylor M
8 S. W. Egeli M
23 S. Szmodics M
11 J. Philogene M
9 G. Hirst F
Bench (9)
27 D. Button
15 A. Young
24 J. Greaves
32 M. Nunez
12 J. Cajuste
20 K. McAteer
47 J. Clarke
29 C. Akpom
31 I. Azon

Coach: Kieran McKenna

West Brom

4-2-3-1
20 J. Griffiths G
6 G. Campbell D
3 N. Phillips D
2 C. Mepham D
29 C. Taylor D
17 O. Diakite M
27 A. Mowatt M
22 S. Iling Junior M
21 I. Price M
11 M. Johnston M
19 A. Heggebo F
Bench (9)
23 J. Wildsmith
14 A. Gilchrist
5 K. Bielik
4 C. Styles
33 C. Deeming
10 K. Grant
12 D. Dike
37 O. Bostock
9 J. Maja

Coach: Ryan Glen Mason

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,77
U
3,61
B
4,57
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,97
U2,5 ✓
1,80
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Josh Smith · 19 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
21,7 / match
Average

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.