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Premier League

Referee: A Madley

Chelsea

T S S S S

1–2

Full-time

Sunderland

U U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Sunderland

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,3

1,7

Scored

2,3

1,0

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

75%

25%

Both score Ø 44%

63%

25%

Average goals

3,1

1,9

Scored

2,0

1,1

Conceded

1,1

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

0,90 xG 1,31

68% Possession 32%

16 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

9 Corners 1

3 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 5. · Sunderland 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	8	6	1	1	+12	+9.3	19
2	Man City	8	5	1	2	+11	+6.3	16
3	Liverpool	8	5	0	3	+3	+4.5	15
4	Bournemouth	8	4	3	1	+3	-0.3	15
5	Chelsea	8	4	2	2	+7	+0.6	14
6	Tottenham	8	4	2	2	+7	-0.9	14
7	Sunderland	8	4	2	2	+3	-2.2	14
8	Crystal Palace	8	3	4	1	+4	+6.5	13
9	Man United	8	4	1	3	-1	+2.6	13
10	Brighton	8	3	3	2	+1	+1.6	12
11	Aston Villa	8	3	3	2	+0	-4.0	12
12	Everton	8	3	2	3	+0	-1.5	11
13	Leeds	9	3	2	4	-5	+2.7	11
14	Brentford	8	3	1	4	-1	+0.9	10
15	Newcastle	8	2	3	3	+0	+4.3	9
16	Fulham	8	2	2	4	-4	-3.3	8
17	Burnley	8	2	1	5	-6	-10.9	7
18	Nott'm Forest	8	1	2	5	-10	-5.4	5
19	West Ham	9	1	1	7	-13	-7.5	4
20	Wolves	8	0	2	6	-11	-3.2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+10	+6.7	10
2	Sunderland	4	3	1	0	+6	+0.6	10
3	Bournemouth	4	3	1	0	+4	+2.2	10
4	Man City	4	3	0	1	+7	+4.7	9
5	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.2	9
6	Man United	4	3	0	1	+3	+5.2	9
7	Everton	4	2	2	0	+3	+0.7	8
8	Brighton	4	2	2	0	+2	+0.7	8
9	Leeds	5	2	2	1	+1	+4.6	8
10	Burnley	4	2	1	1	+3	-4.7	7
11	Brentford	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.0	7
12	Fulham	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.8	7
13	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+1	+0.8	7
14	Aston Villa	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.8	7
15	Crystal Palace	4	1	3	0	+1	+4.8	6
16	Newcastle	4	2	0	2	+1	+3.1	6
17	Tottenham	4	1	1	2	+1	+0.1	4
18	Nott'm Forest	4	1	0	3	-5	-0.7	3
19	Wolves	4	0	1	3	-7	-1.8	1
20	West Ham	4	0	0	4	-10	-6.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	4	3	1	0	+6	-1.0	10
2	Arsenal	4	3	0	1	+2	+2.6	9
3	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+6	-0.3	7
4	Man City	4	2	1	1	+4	+1.6	7
5	Crystal Palace	4	2	1	1	+3	+1.7	7
6	Liverpool	4	2	0	2	+0	+2.4	6
7	Aston Villa	4	1	2	1	+0	-2.2	5
8	Bournemouth	4	1	2	1	-1	-2.5	5
9	Brighton	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.8	4
10	West Ham	5	1	1	3	-3	-1.2	4
11	Sunderland	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.8	4
12	Man United	4	1	1	2	-4	-2.6	4
13	Newcastle	4	0	3	1	-1	+1.2	3
14	Brentford	4	1	0	3	-3	+0.9	3
15	Everton	4	1	0	3	-3	-2.3	3
16	Leeds	4	1	0	3	-6	-1.9	3
17	Nott'm Forest	4	0	2	2	-5	-4.7	2
18	Wolves	4	0	1	3	-4	-1.4	1
19	Fulham	4	0	1	3	-6	-2.5	1
20	Burnley	4	0	0	4	-9	-6.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.