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Serie A

Referee: Maurizio Mariani

Napoli

T S S T T

3–1

Full-time

Inter

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Inter

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

1,5

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,8

3,0

Scored

1,7

2,7

Conceded

2,2

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 71%

71%

Points per game

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

57%

71%

Both score Ø 57%

57%

Average goals

2,7

3,7

Scored

1,7

2,6

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,25 xG 1,89

43% Possession 57%

7 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 0

1 Corners 4

1 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 3. · Inter 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	8	5	2	1	+7	+4.6	17
2	Inter	7	5	0	2	+10	+7.5	15
3	Napoli	7	5	0	2	+5	+5.1	15
4	Roma	7	5	0	2	+4	+2.3	15
5	Bologna	7	4	1	2	+6	+3.7	13
6	Como	8	3	4	1	+4	+2.1	13
7	Juventus	7	3	3	1	+2	+0.5	12
8	Udinese	8	3	3	2	-2	+0.7	12
9	Atalanta	7	2	5	0	+6	+4.7	11
10	Sassuolo	7	3	1	3	+0	-2.9	10
11	Cremonese	7	2	4	1	-1	-4.9	10
12	Lazio	7	2	2	3	+3	-1.3	8
13	Cagliari	7	2	2	3	-2	-5.7	8
14	Torino	7	2	2	3	-7	-2.5	8
15	Parma	8	1	4	3	-4	-1.6	7
16	Lecce	8	1	3	4	-6	-4.6	6
17	Pisa	8	0	4	4	-7	-5.1	4
18	Verona	7	0	4	3	-7	-0.7	4
19	Fiorentina	7	0	3	4	-5	-2.9	3
20	Genoa	7	0	3	4	-6	+0.9	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	5	3	1	1	+2	+1.4	10
2	Inter	4	3	0	1	+8	+5.3	9
3	Bologna	3	3	0	0	+6	+5.1	9
4	Napoli	3	3	0	0	+3	+0.4	9
5	Como	4	2	2	0	+4	+2.0	8
6	Juventus	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.7	8
7	Atalanta	4	1	3	0	+3	+5.0	6
8	Sassuolo	3	2	0	1	+1	-0.5	6
9	Roma	4	2	0	2	+1	+1.8	6
10	Cremonese	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.8	5
11	Parma	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.7	5
12	Udinese	4	1	2	1	-2	+1.4	5
13	Lazio	3	1	1	1	+3	+2.7	4
14	Cagliari	4	1	1	2	-2	-4.2	4
15	Torino	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.2	4
16	Verona	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.4	2
17	Pisa	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.7	2
18	Lecce	4	0	2	2	-3	-2.1	2
19	Genoa	4	0	2	2	-4	+2.4	2
20	Fiorentina	3	0	0	3	-4	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Roma	3	3	0	0	+3	+0.6	9
2	Milan	3	2	1	0	+5	+3.3	7
3	Udinese	4	2	1	1	+0	-0.7	7
4	Inter	3	2	0	1	+2	+2.2	6
5	Napoli	4	2	0	2	+2	+4.7	6
6	Atalanta	3	1	2	0	+3	-0.3	5
7	Como	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.1	5
8	Cremonese	4	1	2	1	-2	-6.7	5
9	Bologna	4	1	1	2	+0	-1.4	4
10	Cagliari	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.5	4
11	Lazio	4	1	1	2	+0	-4.0	4
12	Sassuolo	4	1	1	2	-1	-2.4	4
13	Juventus	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.2	4
14	Lecce	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.5	4
15	Torino	4	1	1	2	-5	-1.3	4
16	Fiorentina	4	0	3	1	-1	-0.2	3
17	Parma	4	0	2	2	-4	-2.3	2
18	Pisa	4	0	2	2	-5	-3.5	2
19	Verona	4	0	2	2	-6	-2.1	2
20	Genoa	3	0	1	2	-2	-1.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.