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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Muñiz Ruiz

Girona

T U U S T

3–3

Full-time

Oviedo

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Girona Oviedo

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

0,8

0,5

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 17%

11%

22%

Points per game

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

56%

33%

Both score Ø 39%

56%

22%

Average goals

2,8

2,2

Scored

0,7

0,4

Conceded

2,1

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,4

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,03 xG 1,79

65% Possession 35%

8 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

11 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Girona 20. · Oviedo 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	9	8	0	1	+11	+9.9	24
2	Barcelona	9	7	1	1	+14	+9.0	22
3	Villarreal	9	5	2	2	+6	+2.2	17
4	Ath Madrid	9	4	4	1	+6	+6.3	16
5	Betis	9	4	4	1	+5	+3.7	16
6	Espanol	9	4	3	2	+2	+6.4	15
7	Elche	9	3	5	1	+2	+0.2	14
8	Ath Bilbao	9	4	2	3	+0	+5.0	14
9	Sevilla	10	4	1	5	+1	-7.6	13
10	Alaves	9	3	3	3	+1	+1.6	12
11	Vallecano	9	3	2	4	+1	+1.3	11
12	Getafe	9	3	2	4	-3	-3.4	11
13	Osasuna	9	3	1	5	-2	-2.8	10
14	Valencia	9	2	3	4	-4	-2.4	9
15	Sociedad	10	2	3	5	-4	-0.4	9
16	Levante	9	2	2	5	-4	-1.0	8
17	Mallorca	9	2	2	5	-4	-8.2	8
18	Celta	9	0	7	2	-3	-0.4	7
19	Oviedo	9	2	0	7	-12	-10.5	6
20	Girona	9	1	3	5	-13	-9.3	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Villarreal	5	4	1	0	+9	+3.7	13
2	Ath Madrid	5	4	1	0	+7	+6.3	13
3	Barcelona	4	4	0	0	+11	+6.9	12
4	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	+5.1	12
5	Elche	5	3	2	0	+4	+3.0	11
6	Osasuna	4	3	1	0	+4	+0.6	10
7	Espanol	5	3	1	1	+2	+2.9	10
8	Ath Bilbao	5	3	1	1	+2	+6.5	10
9	Betis	4	3	0	1	+4	+2.0	9
10	Alaves	5	2	2	1	+2	+3.1	8
11	Valencia	4	2	1	1	+4	+3.8	7
12	Sociedad	5	2	1	2	+0	+2.5	7
13	Getafe	4	1	2	1	+1	-2.5	5
14	Celta	6	0	5	1	-2	+2.6	5
15	Mallorca	4	1	2	1	-2	-3.7	5
16	Sevilla	5	1	1	3	-1	-1.8	4
17	Girona	5	1	1	3	-7	-4.5	4
18	Oviedo	5	1	0	4	-8	-7.5	3
19	Vallecano	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.6	2
20	Levante	4	0	1	3	-7	-4.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	5	4	0	1	+5	+4.8	12
2	Barcelona	5	3	1	1	+3	+2.2	10
3	Vallecano	6	3	0	3	+2	-0.2	9
4	Sevilla	5	3	0	2	+2	-5.9	9
5	Levante	5	2	1	2	+3	+3.2	7
6	Betis	5	1	4	0	+1	+1.8	7
7	Getafe	5	2	0	3	-4	-0.9	6
8	Espanol	4	1	2	1	+0	+3.5	5
9	Alaves	4	1	1	2	-1	-1.4	4
10	Ath Bilbao	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.5	4
11	Villarreal	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.4	4
12	Ath Madrid	4	0	3	1	-1	+0.0	3
13	Mallorca	5	1	0	4	-2	-4.5	3
14	Elche	4	0	3	1	-2	-2.7	3
15	Oviedo	4	1	0	3	-4	-3.0	3
16	Celta	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.0	2
17	Sociedad	5	0	2	3	-4	-2.8	2
18	Girona	4	0	2	2	-6	-4.8	2
19	Valencia	5	0	2	3	-8	-6.3	2
20	Osasuna	5	0	0	5	-6	-3.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.