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Bundesliga

Referee: Matthias Jollenbeck

Hoffenheim

S T U T S

3–1

Full-time

Heidenheim

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Heidenheim

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,5

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

43%

14%

Points per game

1,4

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

71%

57%

Both score Ø 64%

71%

57%

Average goals

3,4

2,7

Scored

1,7

0,9

Conceded

1,7

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,37 xG 1,11

60% Possession 40%

14 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 5

14 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 9. · Heidenheim 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	7	7	0	0	+23	+14.4	21
2	RB Leipzig	7	5	1	1	+1	+1.6	16
3	Stuttgart	7	5	0	2	+5	+3.5	15
4	Dortmund	7	4	2	1	+7	+4.2	14
5	Leverkusen	7	4	2	1	+5	+5.7	14
6	FC Koln	7	3	2	2	+2	-1.9	11
7	Werder Bremen	8	3	2	3	-4	-5.8	11
8	Ein Frankfurt	7	3	1	3	+1	+0.7	10
9	Hoffenheim	7	3	1	3	+0	+0.3	10
10	Union Berlin	8	3	1	4	-4	-4.8	10
11	Freiburg	7	2	3	2	+0	+1.4	9
12	Hamburg	7	2	2	3	-3	-2.9	8
13	Augsburg	7	2	1	4	-2	-6.9	7
14	St Pauli	7	2	1	4	-4	-1.5	7
15	Wolfsburg	7	1	2	4	-5	-1.5	5
16	Mainz	7	1	1	5	-6	-2.0	4
17	Heidenheim	7	1	1	5	-7	-2.9	4
18	M'gladbach	7	0	3	4	-9	-1.4	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	4	0	0	+16	+7.1	12
2	RB Leipzig	3	3	0	0	+5	+2.3	9
3	Stuttgart	3	3	0	0	+4	+0.8	9
4	Dortmund	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.5	7
5	Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	+3	+4.5	7
6	Union Berlin	4	2	1	1	+1	-0.7	7
7	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	-1	+0.8	7
8	Hamburg	3	2	0	1	+3	-0.5	6
9	Freiburg	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.3	5
10	FC Koln	3	1	1	1	+2	-0.1	4
11	St Pauli	4	1	1	2	-3	-0.4	4
12	Heidenheim	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.7	4
13	Ein Frankfurt	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.1	3
14	Augsburg	3	1	0	2	-2	-4.6	3
15	Wolfsburg	4	0	2	2	-4	-2.4	2
16	M'gladbach	4	0	2	2	-6	-1.1	2
17	Mainz	4	0	0	4	-5	-3.5	0
18	Hoffenheim	3	0	0	3	-6	-2.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hoffenheim	4	3	1	0	+6	+2.5	10
2	Bayern Munich	3	3	0	0	+7	+7.3	9
3	Dortmund	4	2	1	1	+3	+2.7	7
4	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.4	7
5	Leverkusen	3	2	1	0	+2	+1.2	7
6	FC Koln	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.8	7
7	RB Leipzig	4	2	1	1	-4	-0.7	7
8	Stuttgart	4	2	0	2	+1	+2.7	6
9	Augsburg	4	1	1	2	+0	-2.3	4
10	Freiburg	3	1	1	1	+0	+0.1	4
11	Mainz	3	1	1	1	-1	+1.5	4
12	Werder Bremen	4	1	1	2	-3	-6.6	4
13	Wolfsburg	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.9	3
14	St Pauli	3	1	0	2	-1	-1.2	3
15	Union Berlin	4	1	0	3	-5	-4.1	3
16	Hamburg	4	0	2	2	-6	-2.5	2
17	M'gladbach	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.3	1
18	Heidenheim	3	0	0	3	-4	-1.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.